OIL POLITICS, SPECULATION, CHAIN REACTION AND MANAGEMENT

It requires quantum of intelligence, to infer from what is happening in the markets, or politico-socio-economic across the globe, to why it is happening. Things are never as simple as they seem to be. This would become comprehendible and evident as soon as one reads, relates and analyses the instances mentioned hereunder:

“Crude oil prices peaked to US $ 100 – 115 a barrel in April and May 2011 and moved downwards after that to touch a rate of US $ 90 – 92 per barrel in June 2011. In such a scenario, price increase by the Union Government should have been announced in April – May 2011, but the same did not occur. The Government found June 2011 to be the auspicious time for announcing price hike when the prices had nearly normalized. What could have been the motive for doing so? Simple answer is that April – May 2011 was the time when five states were going to elect the assembly members. The states being, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry. ”

“If one goes by what the campaign managers of Congress had to say on the Rahul Gandhi’s much publicized kisan padyatra-(which as claimed was undertaken to champion the cause of the farmers of the region) –  was conceived to detract the public attention from the issue of hike in petroleum products and their possible spiraling effect on inflation. This yatra detracted the lot of electronic media attention from the campaign that opposition forces such as BJP and Left were seeking to build up on the oil price hike related issues. ”

“Since the Oil shock of 1973, USA strategically took measures to control the oil market by keeping continued focus on West Asian Region. In 1980, Jimmy Carter, the then President of USA declared Persian Gulf an exclusive zone of American influence and created a rapid deployment of forces, which latter turned into what is known as US Central Command or CENTCOM.  ”

“As is being believed by majority that skirmish in Libya is behind recent spurt in prices, should correct their facts. Libya produces less than 3 per cent of global petroleum output. Where as Saudi Arabia has already made up for the current shortfall and its excess stocks are more than that of Libya and Algeria put together. In fact in present situation too oil production at many of Libyan facilities continues even in civil war there. ”

“The argument being forwarded by few is that rising demand from China and India has forced an upward trend in oil prices is also unjustified. Though these two countries do account for growing share of global demand, but then same is counterbalanced by slower demand from USA and Europe.”

“There is still a wide spread perception that cartel of Oil Exporting Countries can manipulate and influence the prices by changing the level of their supplies. Reality today is much different. The OPEC has turned from being a cartel to being a minor player today. Non OPEC countries now account for increasingly significant proportion of global supply. Russia has already snatched the title of being largest supplier of crude oil from Saudi Arabia since 2009.  ”

Many more such instances may be quoted. It’s not being quoted in anticipation that the variety of above instances is good enough to comprehend that nearly none of the factors assumed or arguments forwarded are capable of forcing any kind of hike in prices of the crude oil.

 

Then what is it, which is responsible for hike in crude oil price?

 

…….any guesses, if not, then storm your grey matter and keep visiting this place in hope of getting answer to this simple question.

 

Always Yours — As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

 

 

Draft Lokpal Bill Ready for Consultation with Citizen of India – Comments Requested

The drafting of the Jan Lokpal bill, which is to be finalized by June 30th, 2011, is underway. You can play your part in this historic moment by giving your invaluable comments/suggestions about the different provisions in the draft of the Jan Lokpal bill which will make it the effective, accountable and independent anti-corruption body that India needs right now. Otherwise, it will remain a law which exists only on paper and has no impact on the ground. The provisions and options for submitting comments are as detailed below:

• Online : Fill your comments directly in the form at : http://www.lokpalbillconsultation.org/
• Email : Send us an email at lokpalbillcomments@gmail.com
• Postal mail : Mail your comments to the following address
      Lokpal Bill Public Consultation
      A-119, Kaushambi
      Ghaziabad – 201010

To download the Full Text Draft of Jan Lokpal Bill Version 2.2 Click Here 

To download English Summary of Jan Lokpal Bill version 2.2 Click Here

[To Read These Documents You Will Require a Adobe Reader. It can be downloaded free from Adobe’s Website]

Your Participation is must…..Do not forego such Options…..This will help in bringing Good governance.

Expecting your full hearted participation…As it is basically non participation of learned and intelligence Citizen which Force Gifts a  Member of Parliament or Member of Legislative Assembly, who may not be most competent of all who are contesting polls. So, please let not the same happen again, and prove this by submitting your Comments or at least even by glancing through it.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

My Journey on Path of E-Commerce: A Recollection

The effort here is not to deliberate on the History of Computers and or Internet, but since it turns out to be a brief but vital component of total deliberations if any is being made on providing or seeking or exchanging any product, service, information etc. using Internet as a medium. Instead of starting the sentence “long long ago….”, like in many other field, here story starts with the set words “In very recent past….” . The deregulation of Internet and it’s use for Commerce is recent as just four decades. Today it would not be wrong if one makes an inference that it happens to be largest market place. It has also succeeded in turning itself near to indispensable and a good number of people can not imagine their daily life in its absence. As a tool of exchanging information and thought, it has even left behind the devices like telephone, fax, mobile telephony etc. by miles. Even we have the examples, though of very recent nature, that few less popular national government, when faced by some kind of event which was called by media as uprising, made internet their first target to breakdown the communication flow taking place in citizens. The case of “EGYPT” and “LIBYA” are a burning and recent example of this. Initially there was some sense of fear amongst the people who were stakeholders in business. These stakeholder can never alone be the Business Men, they also included the beside established business houses, the Entrepreneurs, students of business, the academic and scholarly community dealing with issues related to the domain of business, the customers around whom business revolves, and certainly a few more individuals who comprise those who thought it to be fad and expected it to die an immature death. Here, the stage is ripe for sharing few anecdotes especially Indian to give a practical understanding of how these developments moved from nearly nowhere to everywhere. Prior to starting on it, Helpman and Trajtenberg (1998) were of the opinion that “In any given era there typically exist a handful of technologies that play a far reaching role in widely fostering technical change and thereby bringing about sustained and pervasive productivity gains.” On the similar lines Norman (1999) said that “The goal is to move from current situation of complexity and frustration to one where technology serves human needs invisibly, unobtrusively: the human centered and customer centered way.”

Now coming to Anecdotes:

1. It was perhaps Year 2000 or 2001, when I happened to give entrance examination for pursuing Ph. D. Program at Indian Institute of Information Technology & Management, Gwalior, when it was still functioning in old building. Till then I was not aware that I would be lucky enough to make my career in academics, scholarly and research work, and also in transfer of technology to masses, though I wanted to do it. They used to conduct a written test followed by interview for admitting research scholars. Luckily or otherwise, I cleared the written test to qualify for next stage, that was personal interview. There I was interested in pursuing my research in E- Commerce. That was also a time when an e-Commerce initiative with the help of internet initiated by Shoppers’ Stop had met a debacle. All through the interview while I was trying my best to convince them that e-Commerce was the very near future, the interview board was interested in making me believe that penetration of computer required for that would never happen in India and they topped their argument by quoting the example of debacle of Shoppers’ Stop. Besides it the board also wanted to convince me on importance of bandwidth and its importance for e-Commerce, suggesting me to work on it, as it was a must for success of the concept I was arguing, but then I was least interested as it was a work for a Technical Degree Holder and not my cup of tea with MBA preceded by ZBC. Ultimately we could not land on a common platform and it could be said that they rejected me or I myself worked to get rejected. Nearly the same got repeated at NITIE Pawai Mumbai same year. I would elaborate on it next time when I get chance to further elaborate on it. Its late night and I plan to close writing at this moment. hope spelling mistakes if any would be pardoned.

Always Yours — As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

Happy Holi to All who by Design or Accident Visit this Page…suppoted by a small deliberation on ‘We’or ‘You’

HOW 2 CRE8 A NEW U THIS HOLI

Human Body in itself has a few limitations only but the opportunities possessed by it are numerous. Yet we find ourselves crowded with fears of sufferings, few of which are like wearing out of body [in language of accounting, the process is known as depreciation, i.e., loss in value of an asset due to wear and tear], aging [not in positive terms of learning by curiosity supported by experience leading to enlightenment but as increase in rate of catabolism over anabolism], sickness [as compared to not sending the vehicle to servicing when due] and fear [whereas it’s a clear fact that out of hundred per cent events that you fear may happen, out of them eighty per cent never happen in your life time Pareto’s law].

In all this we tend to forget on what should have been central to our existence, that is, our quest for creativity, curiosity, freedom, enlightenment and probably salvation. We get attached to what in real sense we cannot withhold due to being mortals.  At other times we are busy thinking that we happen to be CEO or this world [which itself is an Illusion] and have responsibility to solve all issues, except for which we are responsible and accountable. We are aware of all the mis-deeds committed by other and seem to be doing same when it’s our turn. Why do we want to correct all except us who happens to be at the pivot of all problematic issues.

Buy my words, and correct yourself, and I assure you of a better world that you will enter into, much better than the imagination that you might have about heaven. The elements of nature are here to provide a synergistic relationship, the moment you focus on changing yourself towards better. These elements make the life possible on earth. Never try to deceive them, as they individually have power, to make life extinct from the planet. These elements as per my limited awareness happen to be five as mentioned ahead: (i): Sky; (ii): Earth; (iii): Air; (iv): Water; and (v): Fire.

Think on facts and you can really be rewarded by not alone creating a new you but altogether a new world.  Remember that you are not mortal as soul, it your physical body that is mortal. You should be aware of the fact that, you may lose your mortal body by passage of time but not you. It’s simply like changing cloths, you are assured of getting a new mortal body, so keep on working towards good cause, not due to fear of being sent to hell but due to fact that within some time you will revisit the planet with new body. It’s just like going for a while to buy new cloths. What you have created will there when you come back [creation here means the contribution you made to this world where life exists]. While performing some task do not be attached with results basically material ones, may be they are there waiting for you when you revisit. In simple terms do remember that your body is nothing more than an illusion.

The fact that you are soul within your body and not the body itself should be remembered by you, even in most testing times. It is energy inside that makes life possible and not the physical body. If you start lacking energy or soul your body will not come to rescue.

If you are fearful of aging, please buy my words, time has never been enemy to anyone, irrespective of anything. It has been the directed efforts of individuals, societies, or nations [perhaps unknowingly] that made time their enemy. Time happens to be an artificial quantity. As we all believe or are made to believe that Supreme Power is eternal or resides in eternal plane, would anyone like to tell me that after how many tomorrows that eternal will come. Probably, eternity is never going to come even after infinite tomorrows. To me it seems that you need cross the boundary line that lies between temporal and non temporal world. So, how could an artificial thing be your enemy? You know that time could be suspended or at least manipulated.  Scientifically you would be aware of the fact that people in spacecraft age much slow as compared to their counterparts on the earth. On the other side we have learned the story of saints who used live for thousand years. Perhaps it was a result of their pious soul, will power and mental state that they were capable of suspending the time.

Remember that, as said in earlier paragraph, that it is the pious soul, will power and mental state of individual that can suspend time. On the other side if you get blocked in physical limits of your body and think that your body by itself is a physical object, then you are cooperating with destructive forces like ageing, feeling that change towards better can never happen, while at the same time on opposite extreme you develop a feeling as said earlier that you are eternal along with your body and it is you who is CEO of this world. How do you feel? Are these not the two opposite principle that you are trying to act upon? Take some time and think for and by yourself and let me how much on the wrong side I am.

If you still want to create a new you in you, then please do become conscious that you are not alone the body rather you should believe that body is very insignificant but important thing. Your intentions, thought, feeling which get transferred to brain are there to consequently impact all your cells in the body and also suck the energy out of you. Thus, the option is to have altruistic intentions, act towards minimizing the suffering of the humanity; believe that you are accountable for acts of yours and finally a new you can make a real and significant development on how the life on this planet shapes up. If you are working alone on self interested materialistic objectives alone, then please do not rate you self on the scale of human, lower order animals are much better at it than you. It is the intentions, acts, thought, and attributes like sacrifice, altruism etc that differentiate you from lower order animals.

 

ALWAYS YOURS — AS USUAL — SAURABH SINGH

Budget 2011- 12 under Scanner

Already having presented the facts prior to budget, as to what I as a country man expected in the budget to be presented on February 28, 2011, and following the same by publishing salient features in the budget, probably now it’s time to comment upon it. It’s not due to the reasons that it required so much of time for analysis, but is just due to waiting for the dust to settle down, so as to get a clear glimpse of the events.

Having said and done all the things earlier, now I can say that ‘budget or no budget’, things would have remained more or less the same.  The fundamental feature of budget lacks any focus or any strategy of any kind (Chandrasekhar, 2011). Even on the crucial issue like that of ‘financial inclusion’, only lip service has been paid, rather it could be blamed to be biased more towards ‘financial consolidation’.

Expenditure as a ratio to GDP as proposed in Budget

Plan Expenditure when compared with that of 2009 – 10 rose from 4.6 per cent to 5.0 per cent in 2010 – 11 and has been budget to come down to 4.9 per cent in 2011 – 12. On the other hand non – plan expenditure in the same period has come down from 11 per cent to 10.4 per cent and projected in budget to carry on the downward trend and reach a figure of 9.1 per cent.

Reality: Decrease will automatically be forced to be much larger

This is being said due to the reasons that non tax revenue in FY 2010 – 11 which stood at Rs. 2, 20, 148 crore had received a contribution of the tune of Rs. 72,000 Crore from sale of 3G and wireless broadband spectrum. Deducting this amount, the non tax revenue of FY 2010 – 11 will rest at Rs. 1, 25, 435 crore only.

Discussion:

In presence of such a crystal clear scenario, which clearly projects fall in aggregate revenue [due to fall in non – tax revenue], how come the budget expects to see it rising to Rs. 7, 89, 892 crore in 2011 – 12 against Rs. 7, 83,833 crore in 2010 – 11.

Even this partial increase fails to directly point towards a source from where it will accrue. Though, it seems to be, projected out of an increase in tax revenue collection. This is being said as projected tax revenue collection stands at Rs. 6, 64, 457 crore in 2011 – 12 against Rs. 5, 63, 685 crore in 2010 – 11.

While a glimpse of budget exposes that while union finance minister proposes to raise additional revenue of RS. 11, 300 crore from increase in indirect taxes, he is giving away Rs. 11, 500 crore in way of direct tax relief. These figures expose a negative contribution of Rs. 200 crore in aggregate tax revenue.

This discussion is being stopped at moment simply after discussing a single issue. There are more issues like inflation towards which this budget seems to be contributing positively, Increasing credit supply to agriculture but reducing public investment in agriculture etc. are many other important issues that require discussion.

 

Note: I am now not writing it as part one or two as my experience says that before I could think of discussing next part of story, some new event important in nature gets born.

Always Yours—As Usual— Saurabh Singh

A BIG CONFESSION BOX WITH SEATING CAPACITY ABOVE 500

Sometimes it seems these days, as if Parliament were a Church, the Speaker as its Head Priest and the Public Address System Microphones embed on desks of Members of Parliament were Confession Box, and probably all who have assembled there are sinners waiting for their chance at Confession Box.

What worth the confession would remain if it fails in bringing turnaround in the value system of the confessor toward Holy Principles and pious way of leading life?

Despite of Confession Chavan still remains the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. Why the investigators from CBI, or any other organ of government discharging similar function, are not interrogating him to unravel the Consideration for which he became a party to misguiding the Prime Minister’s Office, Prime Minister, Home Minister and Leader of Opposition.

Perhaps any individual may agree that this event is no less than Treason to Nation and in eyes of law same is punishable by Life Imprisonment or Capital Punishment. Without trying to take side of any party, it can be inferred that crime, if any, committed by Binayak Sen of lesser degree as compared to this event. Here, efforts were to make a proven corrupt as Chief Officer to take care of corrupt officers and bring them to law of land.

It would had been better if Thomas before taking the Oath as CVC would had made a self confession. As taking oath and then being seated on chair means that he was still going cheat all possible. Yesterday it was Palmolein other day it may have been security of Prime Minister, Leader of Congress, Leader of Opposition or even Nation. He would certainly have prepared a thorough Price List before joining the office.

Perhaps we all have made a habbit of being effort oriented and not result oriented. If the things have to move in right direction, this orientation will have to change.

Always your — As Usual– Saurabh Singh

”Kayani feared condemning Guv murder may endanger army unity”

Pakistan”s army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who had “declined” to publicly condemn the January killing of Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer, had told Western envoys that there were “too many soldiers” in the ranks who “sympathised” with the assassin, a noted author has claimed.

For its part, the army has so far failed to express regret on either Minority Affairs Minister Shahbaz Bhatti”s murder or Taseer”s, Lahore-based author Ahmed Rashid, also a senior journalist, wrote in ”The New York Review of Books”. Both Bhatti, the only Christian member of the Pakistani Cabinet, and Taseer were killed for opposing the controversial blasphemy law.

Kayani “declined to publicly condemn Taseer”s death or even to issue a public condolence to his family. He told Western ambassadors in January in Islamabad that there were too many soldiers in the ranks who sympathise with the killer,” Rashid wrote.

The army chief showed the envoys “a scrapbook of photographs of Taseer”s killer being hailed as a hero by fellow police officers. Any public statement, he hinted, could endanger the army”s unity,” Rashid said.

Behind this silence lies “something more sinister,” he wrote. “For decades the army and the ISI have controlled the extremist groups, arming and training them in exchange for their continuing to serve as proxy forces in Afghanistan and Kashmir. But in recent years, the army has lost control of them and they are striking targets of their own.”

“Yet the army has refused to help crack down on its rogue proteges despite the fact that extremists have increasingly attacked the army and the ISI itself,” Rashid said.

This is all the more ominous in view of the resources the military commands: half a million men, another half a million reserves, 110 nuclear arms, according to US media estimates, and one of the largest intelligence agencies in the world, the ISI, which has an estimated 100,000 employees, he noted.

“If the army has now surrendered any willingness to take on the extremists, the political establishment had already given up long ago,” Rashid wrote.

President Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of slain PPP leader Benazir Bhutto, is no stranger to extremism himself and his populist base has traditionally voted for the party”s “anti-mullah, anti-army and pro-people policies,” he said.

“Unfortunately those principles were abandoned by a series of corrupt and ineffectual leaders, and the PPP today is not even a shadow of what it once was,” he said, while noting that Zardari has also “backtracked” on foreign policy goals such as improving relations with India and Afghanistan.

“The security agencies have unleashed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) — the largest and most feared extremist group in Pakistan, which was behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks — on to the streets of Lahore,” Rashid said.

“Right now Pakistan is becoming a place where there is an army without a country,”  wrote Rashid.

 

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

Source:http://news.in.msn.com/international/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4994774

Egypt: Now without Hosni Mubarak in Control of Affairs– For Other Nations a Caveat Issued Against Facebook and Likes…..

A Brief Introduction to Hosni Mubarak & His Journey

Hosni Mubarak has ruled the country Egypt for 30 years, which by far is the most powerful in the Arab world. It all started on October 6, 1981. Egypt was shaken when its President Anwar Sadat was assassinated by right-wing Arab groups during a military parade before the world’s eyes. Mubarak, who was then the vice president, was wounded in the attack. Terrified he stood there and by the time stunned security police began firing back, killing two of the assassins, Sadat was already dying.

Mubarak was a natural successor. He took control of the government on October 14, 1981 and has held it, by various means, ever since. While this is looked at as his first appearance on the global stage, one cannot overlook the crucial role he played in 1973.

He is still credited with winning the war that changed the course of Arab Israeli relations in October 1973, when he was Air Chief, under Sadat’s presidency. The victory over Israel brought him personal glory too.

In April 1975, Mubarak was appointed as the vice president of the Egyptian republic and he loyally served Sadat’s policies. He became a popular representative of the President and had numerous meetings with foreign leaders.  Mubarak’s political significance as vice president can be seen from the fact that at a conversation held on June 23, 1975 between Egypt Foreign Minister Fahmy and United States Ambassador Hermann Eilts, Fahmy said to Eilts that “Mubarak is, for the time being at least, likely to be a regular participant in all sensitive meetings”. He advised the ambassador not to antagonise Mubarak, as he was Sadat’s personal choice.

Mubarak may be considered largely unpopular today, but as President, he allied with the West and an anchor of stability in the Middle East. Taking over as President, he moved quickly to crush an Islamic uprising and jailed over 2,500 members of militant Islamic groups engaging in violence. Mubarak retained most of Sadat’s foreign and domestic policies, and Sadat’s close ties to the United States. All the Arab states but three had criticised Egypt for the treaty with Israel, so Mubarak tried to rebuild relations with Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Palestine Liberation Organisation leader Yasir Arafat. It was Mubarak who encouraged Arafat to compromise and recognise Israel’s rig ht to exist.

Throughout the 1980s Mubarak increased the production of affordable housing, clothing, furniture, and medicine. He also kept a close eye on his officials, firing ministers at the first hint of wrong-doing and fining members of Parliament for unnecessary absences. Egypt’s heavy dependence on US aid and her hopes for US pressure on Israel for a Palestinian settlement continued under Mubarak. He improved relations with the former Soviet Union. In 1987, Mubarak won election to a second six-year term. In 1989, eight years after Sadat’s assassination, Egypt was re-admitted as a full member the Arab League. Its membership was suspended after Sadat’s peace treaty with Israel, but Mubarak rebuilt the bridges.

Mubarak was angered over the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. When the US was hunting for a military alliance to force Iraq out of Kuwait, Egypt’s President joined without hesitation. After the war, his reward was that America, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, and Europe forgave Egypt around $14 billion of debt. He won America’s support and Egypt enjoyed massive amounts of military and economic aid over the last three decades.

The Wave of Change

However, as years went by Mubarak became more authoritarian. He throttled meaningful political evolution and curbed the freedom of expression. Plots to assassinate Mubarak had surfaced in 1992, 1993, and 1995 and he is known to have survived six assasination attempts. But Mubarak continued his tough stance. His crackdown led to charges against his government of torture, threats to the press, and other human rights abuses

Political corruption in the Mubarak administration rose dramatically. Such corruption has led to the imprisonment of political figures and young activists without trials, illegal undocumented hidden detention facilities and rejecting universities, mosques, newspapers staff members based on political inclination.
And all of this worsened in 2005. After increased domestic and international pressure for democratic reform in Egypt, Mubarak asked the largely rubber stamp Parliament on February 26, 2005 to amend the constitution to allow multi-candidate presidential elections by September 2005.

On July 28, 2005, Mubarak announced his candidacy, as he had been widely expected to do. The election which was scheduled for September 7, 2005 was widely seen as heavily rigged.

Votes were bought for Mubarak in poor suburbs and rural areas. It was also reported that thousands of illegal votes were allowed for Mubarak from citizens who were not registered to vote. On September 8, 2005, Ayman Nour, a dissident and candidate for the El-Ghad Party, contested the election results, and demanded a repeat of the election. In a move widely seen as political persecution, Nour was convicted of forgery and sentenced to five years on December 24, 2005.

Even the Muslim Brotherhood, which has a wide cadre base in Egypt, fielded candidates as independents due to their illegality as a political party. They won 88 seats to form the largest opposition bloc, but only after the arrests of hundreds of Brotherhood members. A constitutional amendment adopted by the National Democratic Party-dominated Parliament has made it virtually impossible for independents like former IAEA chief Mohamed El-Baradei to run for president.

Soon after, Mubarak appointed his son Gamal as the general secretary of the ruling NDP, a move that convinced many of his unwillingness to let go of power.

As Mubarak tried to tighten his grip over Egypt, anti-government protests strengthened in 2005 giving rise to the Kifaya (enough) movement, the unofficial moniker of the Egyptian Movement for Change.

It first came to public attention in the summer of 2004, and achieved a much greater profile during the 2005 constitutional referendum and presidential election campaigns. Since then it has opposed Mubarak’s presidency and over the years the voices have only grown louder.Now the final outcome this gradual but sure approach is in open — Mubarak Stepped Down.

Role of Social Media

In one of my earlier posts posted on this blog dated February 04, 2011, I wrote an article with title as mentioned below, but found rare buyers of the concept. Probably now its no more a secret and known to all. I did not emphasize much thereafter on role of social media because one of my teacher taught me a lession that can mentioned as  “People can believe only on the things, creations and thoughts and other things of the same kind, only to the extent if they are capable of even imagining such phenomenon in their wildest dreams. Else they will laugh at you and will say the things that you may not love to listen. Let them be mature, but do not kill your vision just for the reasons that other are suffering from vision myopia.”

THE FACE BOOK IS WORKING TO GET CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT OF A NATION: YES, I MEAN IT– IT’s EGYPT –Saurabh Singh

Adding to the dicussion further I would like to state what’s even more interesting  and that is the role played by Social Media tools like the use of Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube to speed the process of protests in Egypt. There has been some backlash about the use of social media, with some pundits calling it a “Facebook Revolution,” as if without Facebook this wouldn’t be happening.

The revolt still would have happened, even if the Social Media tools were not there. but their presence added fuel to fire of revolution. Today’s era of real-time communication made the “words of the January 25 protests” spread more quickly and gained momentum that would have been hard to achieve without the social networks.

But it also leads oneto wonder…is the use of the Internet, and social media, a human right?

The best testimony about social media’s role in these events has to be the efforts of the Tunisian and Egyptian governments to thwart or completely cut off the Internet. The chart published on Mashable, the Internet became a critical communications point leading up to the events of the past few days. It’s no wonder that the autocratic Mubarek regime sought to protect its own power by cutting the Internet.

It should be noted that the protests have significantly escalated since the proverbial kill switch was hit on the Egyptian Internet. So at best social’s role can only be painted as a catalyst, and not the ultimate factor.

Leaving the discussion on Role of Social Media to Political Pundits.. will follow If find their or comments from my audiences on the topic.

 

Post Mubarak Situation in Egypt : A State of Uncertain Transition

Some have termed the departure of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak from office on Friday as a resignation. Some others have called it waiving the office or powers of the president. The Egyptian constitution provides for both contingencies.

When a president resigns, the constitution requires that he should address his letter of resignation to the president (speaker) of the parliament. When he stops exercising the powers of the president, he addresses his letter to the vice-president.

Article 82 provides for this interesting contingency of the president leaving office without formally resigning. It says: “If on account of any temporary obstacle the president of the republic is unable to carry out his functions, he shall delegate his powers to a vice-president.”

Mubarak, while leaving office much to the jubilation of the protesters, did not inform the president of the parliament and submit a formal letter of resignation as required under the constitution.

Nor did he ask Vice-President Omar Suleiman to take over. Instead, he asked the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to take over. It is a coup without seeming to be a coup.

One can go on analysing the circumstances of Mubarak’s departure. Whatever be the circumstances, Mubarak is gone from office for ever. It is time to discuss what next. Egypt is now in a state of transition under the leadership of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which consists of the following:

Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who has been the minister of defense and commander-in-chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces since 1991.

He has been a field marshal since 1989. After the protests broke out on January 25, Mubarak promoted him as deputy prime minister and asked him to continue to hold the defence portfolio.

He visited the Tahrir Square on February 4 and met the troops deployed there as well as the protesters. He is the chairman of the Supreme Council.

Air Marshal Reda Mahmoud Hafez Mohamed, the chief of the air force since March 20, 2008.

Lieutenant General Sami Hafez Anan, chief of staff of the army.

Lt Gen Abd El Aziz Seif-Eldeen, commander of air defense.

Vice Admiral Mohab Mamish, chief of navy.

Is Lt Gen Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, who made the televised announcement regarding Mubarak leaving office after handing over his powers, a member of the Supreme Council? The position is not clear.

Al Jazeera says he is. Others do not say so. However, since he is only a lieutenant general and since the Supreme Council is headed by a field marshal, it stands to reason that Suleiman may have to work under the orders of the Supreme Council and not vice versa.

What next? The present constitution has become untenable since the post-Mubarak transitional arrangements are not in accordance with the constitution.

This gives rise to the possibility that the Supreme Council may suspend the constitution and dissolve the parliament. Mohamed El Baradei has said that Egypt will now have a provisional constitution.

What will be the duration of the transitional arrangements? Till September when the election of a new president is due or for a longer period?

The political elements, who participated in the protest movement, are already saying that it may not be possible for the Supreme Council to restore political and economic normalcy before September and, hence, according to them, it should be for a longer period.

El Baradei has been quoted by the BBC as stating as follows: “What I have been proposing is a transitional period of one year. We will have a provisional constitution. We’ll have a transitional government, hopefully a presidential council, including a person from the army and a couple of civilians.”

“The main idea is that the army and the Egyptian people will work together in a systematic way for a year to reach the point where we can hold a genuine free and fair election, a parliamentary election and a presidential election. I think the people of Egypt, who have been suppressed for at least 30 years, are ready to wait for a year as they see things are going in the right direction,” Baradei said.

The younger non-political elements, who played a leading role in the revolution, have not clearly indicated their view on this subject apart from expressing their trust in the army.

Wael Ghonim, the Egyptian Google executive, who is credited with rallying many young people behind El Baradei, has tweeted to his followers as follows: “The military statement is great. I trust our Egyptian army”.

The armed forces’ statement to which he had referred said the Supreme Council would lift the country’s emergency law but only “as soon as current circumstances end”.

It also said, “Armed forces make a commitment to caring for the people’s legitimate demands, and to seeking to follow their implementation within the time frames with full precision and resolution, until the complete transfer of power, and the achievement of the democratic free society which the people aspire to”.

It pledged not to prosecute ‘the honest men who called for an end to corruption and for reform.’

While it spoke of time-frames for the transition, it refrained from specifying those time-frames. If Ghonim comes out ultimately in support of El Baradei’s call for a longer transition, will other youth leaders support him?

Who will be in any transitional government or council that may be constituted? Everybody wants that it should be a civilian council possibly headed by El Baradei and including a representative of the armed forces.

It is not yet clear whether the Supreme Council would accept a transitional council of which the Muslim Brotherhood is a member.

The MB has been supportive of El Baradei till now. He has been advocating a role for the MB in the transitional set-up, but the MB has said it does not want any role. The youth leaders are not opposed to it. The Supreme Council has not yet spelt out its views.

Always Yours —- As Usual — Saurabh Singh

 

 

 

 

THE FACE BOOK IS WORKING TO GET CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT OF A NATION: YES, I MEAN IT– IT’s EGYPT –Saurabh Singh

Face Book message that started it all

A 26-year-old woman worried about the state of her country wrote on Facebook: “People, I am going to Tahrir Square”. The message was soon to snowball into a movement to oust Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

The Facebook appeal by Asmaa Mahfouz led to popular protests that saw tens of thousands congregating at Tahrir Square to demand an end to Mubarak’s unbridled 30-year rule. Mubarak has said he is ready to step down at the end of his term in September, but has refused to quit immediately now.

Violent clashes during the protests have left six dead and over 800 injured. Asmaa Mahfouz told Al-Mihwar TV the first activity was on Facebook. “Yes. I was angry that everybody was saying that we had to take action, but nobody was doing anything. So I wrote on Facebook: ‘People, I am going to Tahrir Square today’. This was a week before January 25.”

“I wrote that I was going to demand the…rights of my country. I wrote that I was 26 years old…,” the Middle East Media Research Institute quoted her as saying.

Asmaa said she wrote on Facebook that whoever is worried about Egypt should accompany her to Tahrir Square. “There were lots of messages saying: Wait until January 25. I said: There is no reason to wait for the 25th. I went to Tahrir Square and raised a sign,” she recounted. That snowballed into the unrest which has rocked Egypt for the past 10 days.

Egypt braces for Mubarak’s ‘day of departure’ rallies

Egyptians fighting to oust President Hosni Mubarak hoped to rally a million people on Friday as the

United States worked to convince the 82-year-old leader to begin handing over power.

A senior US official, who declined to be named, said on Thursday Washington was discussing with Egyptians different scenarios, including one in which Mubarak resigned immediately.

Mubarak, however, speaking in an interview with ABC on Thursday, said he believed his country still needed him.

“If I resign today, there will be chaos,” Mubarak, who has promised to step down in September, said. Asked to comment on calls for him to resign, he said: “I don’t care what people say about me. Right now I care about my country.”

In Cairo’s Tahrir Square — the hub of protests now into their 11th day — thousands who had defied a curfew and attacks on Wednesday by pro-Mubarak supporters — were preparing for a rally they had dubbed the “Friday of Departure”.

Organisers called on people to march from wherever they were towards the square, the state television building and the parliament building — all within around a mile of one another.

By daybreak, shouts of “Let Mubarak fall … Let Mubarak fall … Let Mubarak fall” pulsed across the square.

With the unprecedented challenge to Mubarak’s 30-year-rule turning increasingly violent, Washington has been urging Egypt to begin the transition of power and move towards elections.

US in talks over possible Mubarak exit

A senior official in the administration of President Barack Obama said various options were being discussed with Egyptian officials, including one in which Mubarak resigned immediately.

“That’s one scenario,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “There are a number of scenarios, but (it is) wrong to suggest we have discussed only one with the Egyptians.”

The New York Times cited US officials and Arab diplomats as saying Washington was discussing a plan for Mubarak to hand over power to a transitional government headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military.

“They should mind their own business”

However, it also quoted a senior Egyptian official as saying the constitution did not allow this. “That’s my technical answer,” he added. “My political answer is they should mind their own business.”

Suleiman also hinted at irritation with US interference in a television interview on Thursday.

“There are some abnormal ways by which foreign countries have intervened through press declarations and statements. This was very strange, given the friendly relations between us and them,” he said.

Obama and his top aides have carefully avoided calling for Mubarak’s resignation, instead insisting that an orderly transition “must begin now”.

An estimated 150 people have died in the unrest which was inspired in part by protests in Tunisia which forced Tunisian strongman Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali to flee last month and which have since spread to other parts of the Middle East.

In the most dramatic spike in violence, pro-Mubarak supporters attacked protesters in Tahrir Square on Wednesday and pitched battles broke out between the two sides. The government denied accusations by the protesters and international activists that they had instigated the attack.

The government has offered talks on reforms, but that has failed to satisfy protesters who want Mubarak to leave now.

The opposition — which includes the liberal figurehead Mohamed ElBaradei and the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood — has rejected talks until Mubarak resigns.

They say they want democracy rather than Mubarak’s replacement by another leader drawn from the army, which has dominated Egypt since it toppled the monarchy in 1952.

The United States supplies the Egyptian army with about $1.3 billion in aid annually.

Egypt, which signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, has been a key US ally in the Middle East. Mubarak had also justified his use of emergency rule as needed to curb Islamist militancy in a country where al-Qaida had its ideological roots.

Mubarak described Obama as a very good man, but when asked by ABC if he felt that the United States had betrayed him, he said he told the US president: “You don’t understand the Egyptian culture and what would happen if I step down now.”

 

Khamenei Calls it:Arab uprisings & sign of ‘Islamic awakening

A wave of uprisings in Arab countries is a sign of an “Islamic awakening” which was envisaged when the 1979 Iranian revolution took place, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday.

“Today’s events in North Africa, Egypt and Tunisia and some other countries have different meanings for us,” Khamenei, the commander-in-chief and spiritual guide of Iran, said in a sermon at Tehran university during the Muslim weekly prayers.

“This is what was always talked about as the occurrence of Islamic awakening at the time of the Islamic revolution of the great Iranian nation and is showing itself today.”

Khamenei’s remarks were received by cheering crowds of worshippers who, raising their hands, chanted “Death to America! Death to Israel!”

The sermon marked the first time in seven months that Khamenei has addressed the weekly Friday prayers and came as protesters were massing in Egypt for sweeping “departure day” demonstrations to force President Hosni Mubarak to quit.

Top Iranian officials have backed the revolt in Egypt and have warned Tehran’s arch-foe Washington against “interfering” in the what they say is a movement of the people.

Always Yours — As Usual—- Saurabh Singh

 

 

A 26-year-old woman worried about the state of her country wrote on Facebook: “People, I am going to Tahrir Square”. The message was soon to snowball into a movement to oust Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

The Facebook appeal by Asmaa Mahfouz led to popular protests that saw tens of thousands congregating at Tahrir Square to demand an end to Mubarak’s unbridled 30-year rule. Mubarak has said he is ready to step down at the end of his term in September, but has refused to quit immediately now.

Violent clashes during the protests have left six dead and over 800 injured. Asmaa Mahfouz told Al-Mihwar TV the first activity was on Facebook. “Yes. I was angry that everybody was saying that we had to take action, but nobody was doing anything. So I wrote on Facebook: ‘People, I am going to Tahrir Square today’. This was a week before January 25.”

“I wrote that I was going to demand the…rights of my country. I wrote that I was 26 years old…,” the Middle East Media Research Institute quoted her as saying.

Asmaa said she wrote on Facebook that whoever is worried about Egypt should accompany her to Tahrir Square. “There were lots of messages saying: Wait until January 25. I said: There is no reason to wait for the 25th. I went to Tahrir Square and raised a sign,” she recounted. That snowballed into the unrest which has rocked Egypt for the past 10 days.

 

Source URL: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/Egypt-braces-for-Mubaraks-day-of-departure-rallies/articleshow/7423241.cms

A DILEMMA CALLED MORALITY – HOW ETHICAL ARE WHO PREACH IT

When the draupadi was being insulted in the court of Kurus, she naturally turned to elder statesman Bhishma, asking that whether the henious act being perpetrated by Duryodhana and Duhshasana was in accordance with dharma.

Bhisma’s reply was evasive..

“..the course of morality is subtle. Even the illustrious wise in this world fail to understand it always. What in this world a strong man calls morality is regarded as such by others, however otherwise it may really be; but what a weak man calls morality is scarcely regarded as such even if it be the highest morality. From the importance of issue involved, from its intricacy and subtitlity, I am unable to answer with certitude the question thou hast asked…”

Source: Sabha Parva, canto 69, verses 15 – 16, Translated by Kisari Mohan Gaunguli

—-Always Yours——————- As Usual—————-Saurabh Singh