OIL POLITICS, SPECULATION, CHAIN REACTION AND MANAGEMENT

It requires quantum of intelligence, to infer from what is happening in the markets, or politico-socio-economic across the globe, to why it is happening. Things are never as simple as they seem to be. This would become comprehendible and evident as soon as one reads, relates and analyses the instances mentioned hereunder:

“Crude oil prices peaked to US $ 100 – 115 a barrel in April and May 2011 and moved downwards after that to touch a rate of US $ 90 – 92 per barrel in June 2011. In such a scenario, price increase by the Union Government should have been announced in April – May 2011, but the same did not occur. The Government found June 2011 to be the auspicious time for announcing price hike when the prices had nearly normalized. What could have been the motive for doing so? Simple answer is that April – May 2011 was the time when five states were going to elect the assembly members. The states being, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry. ”

“If one goes by what the campaign managers of Congress had to say on the Rahul Gandhi’s much publicized kisan padyatra-(which as claimed was undertaken to champion the cause of the farmers of the region) –  was conceived to detract the public attention from the issue of hike in petroleum products and their possible spiraling effect on inflation. This yatra detracted the lot of electronic media attention from the campaign that opposition forces such as BJP and Left were seeking to build up on the oil price hike related issues. ”

“Since the Oil shock of 1973, USA strategically took measures to control the oil market by keeping continued focus on West Asian Region. In 1980, Jimmy Carter, the then President of USA declared Persian Gulf an exclusive zone of American influence and created a rapid deployment of forces, which latter turned into what is known as US Central Command or CENTCOM.  ”

“As is being believed by majority that skirmish in Libya is behind recent spurt in prices, should correct their facts. Libya produces less than 3 per cent of global petroleum output. Where as Saudi Arabia has already made up for the current shortfall and its excess stocks are more than that of Libya and Algeria put together. In fact in present situation too oil production at many of Libyan facilities continues even in civil war there. ”

“The argument being forwarded by few is that rising demand from China and India has forced an upward trend in oil prices is also unjustified. Though these two countries do account for growing share of global demand, but then same is counterbalanced by slower demand from USA and Europe.”

“There is still a wide spread perception that cartel of Oil Exporting Countries can manipulate and influence the prices by changing the level of their supplies. Reality today is much different. The OPEC has turned from being a cartel to being a minor player today. Non OPEC countries now account for increasingly significant proportion of global supply. Russia has already snatched the title of being largest supplier of crude oil from Saudi Arabia since 2009.  ”

Many more such instances may be quoted. It’s not being quoted in anticipation that the variety of above instances is good enough to comprehend that nearly none of the factors assumed or arguments forwarded are capable of forcing any kind of hike in prices of the crude oil.

 

Then what is it, which is responsible for hike in crude oil price?

 

…….any guesses, if not, then storm your grey matter and keep visiting this place in hope of getting answer to this simple question.

 

Always Yours — As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

 

 

US Celebrates Osama Bin Laden’s Death while Allies Try to Keep Smile Intact

A firefighter waves to the crowd as people celebrate after Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in Pakistan, during a spontaneous celebration in New York’s Times Square, May 2, 2011

U.S. President Barack Obama was preparing to announce Osama bin Laden was dead when word got out and crowds started gathering late Sunday outside the White House in Washington and at Ground Zero in New York City.

From Times Square to Ground Zero to the White House, the familiar chant of “USA , USA” resonated as citizens learned that the Osama bin Laden was dead.

The announcement sparked immediate jubilation. In Time Square, people gathered around giant news tickers to see the latest updates. Pam Sather recalls the moment she heard the world’s most wanted terrorist was dead.

“It is just amazing, we were just walking out of a pizza joint,” she said. “And, all the sudden we saw in the bar on the television. We were just glued.”

At the White House, young Americans climbed trees, climbed light posts, donned American flags and sang the national anthem.

The feeling was euphoric as thousands of Americans gathered in front of the White House just hours after U.S. President Barack Obama made the announcement that Osama bin Laden was dead.

For many, including student Kathryn Costello, it became a moment of reflection, thinking back to the nearly 3,000 lives lost on September 11, 2001, an act of terror Osama bin Laden claimed responsibility for.

“I think a lot of us have grown up with the memory of 9/11 and sort of this constant notion of a threat and the danger of terrorism,” said Costello. “So this is a triumphant moment for all of us.”  

For many U.S. soldiers, including U.S. Marine Jake Diliberto, this is a day they have been fighting for.

“We feel really really vindicated that we finally got him,” he said. “This is our generation’s VE, VJ. This is our generation’s victory and enduring freedom day.”

Patriotism filled the air outside the White House into the early hours Monday.

Two hours after the announcement, with celebrations still roaring, the U.S. Secret Service brought in barriers to push back revelers from the White House.

International student Sunny Shih said the importance of the historical moment reaches beyond the gates of the White House.

“This is a very important moment for not only the U.S.A., but for the entire world,” said Shih.

Many world leaders are praising the achievement of U.S. military forces Sunday in Pakistan, who killed Osama bin Laden, captured his body and buried it at sea. But they are cautioning bin Laden’s death elevates security risks around the world.

Back at the White House, the focus remains on the justice the president said was delivered.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

Source: Voice of America

Pakistan’s ISI spy agency has ‘militant links’ — Says US Military’s Top Officer

The US military’s top officer, Adm Mike Mullen, has accused Pakistan’s spy agency of having links with militants targeting troops in Afghanistan.

He said Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had a “long-standing relationship” with a militant group run by Afghan insurgent Jalaluddin Haqqani.

The comments came as he held talks in Islamabad on Wednesday. Pakistani officials are also in the US for talks.

Pakistan routinely rejects charges of collusion with militants.

The BBC’s M Ilyas Khan in Islamabad says that US officials have in the past spoken anonymously or in circumspect terms about associations between the Pakistani establishment and insurgents.

But that with this blunt statement Adm Mullen has for the first time claimed a clear link between the two, our correspondent says.

“It’s fairly well known that the ISI has a long-standing relationship with the Haqqani network,” Adm Mullen told Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper.

“Haqqani is supporting, funding, training fighters that are killing Americans and killing coalition partners. And I have a sacred obligation to do all I can to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

He said the spy agency’s support of the network remained at the “core … and the most difficult part of the relationship” and that he would take it up with Pakistan’s army chief Gen Ashfaq Kayani.

‘Negative propaganda’

But a senior Pakistani intelligence official told the Reuters news agency that the accusation was unfounded.

“If he means we’re providing them with protection, with help, that’s not correct,” the official, who wished to remain unnamed, told Reuters.

A statement from Gen Kayani, released after their meeting, rejected what it termed as “negative propaganda of Pakistan not doing enough”.

But the statement also said that the strategic relationship between the countries was important for their mutual security.

On Thursday Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir is scheduled to hold talks with US State Department officials in Washington, in what is being billed as an effort to improve relations.

US-Pakistan ties have struggled to recover following the row over CIA contractor Raymond Davis – who was arrested and later released after shooting dead two Pakistani men in Lahore. The case stoked anti-American feeling across Pakistan and led to angry demonstrations

Recent reports following a meeting between the heads of the countries’ spy agencies in Washington, suggested that Pakistan had demanded certain restrictions to the CIA’s activities in Pakistan.

Anti-US sentiment has also been exacerbated by US drone strikes targeting militants in the north-west of the country.

Drone anger

US drone attacks have escalated in north-west Pakistan since President Barack Obama took office. But they are hugely unpopular with the Pakistani public. Many militants, some of them senior, have been killed in the raids, but hundreds of civilians have also died.

The US does not routinely confirm it is conducting drone operations in Pakistan, but analysts say only American forces have the capacity to deploy such aircraft in the region.

Analysts believe that Haqqani’s insurgent network has been based in Pakistan since 2001, and that the ISI still exerts considerable influence over it.

The group has been blamed for some of the deadliest attacks on foreign troops across the border in Afghanistan.

Though the Pakistani military has routinely rejected any ties with the militants operating in Afghanistan, many analysts believe collaboration between the two is an open secret, our correspondent says.

Indeed analysts argue that Pakistan has always maintained links with some militant groups in order to try to influence events in neighbouring Afghanistan..

The timing of these remarks, our correspondent adds, suggests that the US is stepping up pressure on Pakistan to relinquish any links with Afghan militants ahead of the US forces’ impending withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

Source: BBC

THE ARRIVAL OF U. S. S. GEORGE WASHINGTON AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN YELLOW SEA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A CONUNDRUM FOR CHINA

THE ARRIVAL OF U. S. S. GEORGE WASHINGTON AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN YELLOW SEA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A CONUNDRUM FOR CHINA

Professor Saurabh Singh‘s comment on International Polity

Scholar of Domain of Knowledge Named Administrative Sciences

Dilemma of nature that may be dubbed as unique in its own kind, i.e,

?        TO SPEAK OR NOT TO SPEAK

ƒ       Should it protest angrily and aggravate ties with Washington, or

ƒ       quietly accept the presence of a key symbol of American military pre-eminence off Chinese shores

?        BACKGROUND

ƒ        The USS George Washington, accompanied by escort ships, is to take part in military drills with South Korea following North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island.

ƒ        The Shelling on Tuesday is one of the most serious confrontations since the Korean War a half-century ago.

?           IT’S A SCENARIO WHICH CHINA HAS ALWAYS PREVENT

Only four months ago, Chinese officials and military officers shrilly warned Washington against sending a carrier into the Yellow Sea for an earlier set of exercises

Some said it would escalate tensions after the sinking of a South Korean navy ship blamed on North Korea.

Others went further, calling the carrier deployment a threat to Chinese security.

?           CHINESE BELIEVE THAT THEIR OBJECTIONS WORKED

Although Washington never said why, no aircraft carrier sailed into the strategic Yellow Sea, which laps at several Chinese provinces and the Korean peninsula.

This time around, with outrage high over the shelling, the U.S. raising pressure on China to rein in wayward ally North Korea

a Chinese-American summit in the works, the warship is coming, and Beijing is muffling any criticisms.

PROFESSOR MICHAEL RICHARDSON, Commented..,

[A visiting research fellow at Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies]

“I think China must be quietly cursing North Korea under their breath.”

“The Scenario can very well be taken as a of the adverse Outcome of North Korea’s most recent belligerence.

Belligerence by NORTH KOREA has transformed in “HOT POTATO IN THE MOUTH SCENARIO***” for CHINA

China, as of now can neither “open the mouth nor Keep it shut”; as regards to deployment of U.S. Naval Ship George Washington, which happens to be a Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carrier, in the East China Sea,”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman reiterated Beijing’s long-standing insistence that foreign navies obtain its permission before undertaking military operations inside China’s exclusive economic zone, which extends 230 miles (370 kilometers) from its coast.

The statement also reiterated calls for calm and restraint but did not directly mention the Yellow Sea or the planned exercises.

Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid, in an editorial expressed its worries by stating  that a U.S. carrier would upset the delicate balance in the Yellow Sea, [Ignoring the fact that the George Washington has taken part in drills in those waters numerous times before.]

North Korea, not ready to come out of its belligerence, has warned that the U.S.-South Korean military drills were pushing the peninsula to the “brink of war.”

?        A MORE PASSIVE APPROACH SEEMS A BETTER TRADE OFF FOR CHINA

Its credibility with Washington and trading partner South Korea would get a boost

Put North Korea on notice that its actions are wearing China’s patience thin

PROFESSOR ZHU FENG, Director Peking University’s Center for International and Strategic Studies opined:

“The Chinese government is trying to send Pyongyang a signal that, if they continue to be so provocative, China will just leave the North Koreans to themselves.” He added further that “What China should do is make the North Koreans feel that they have got to stop messing around.”

 

CHINA FEARS RESORTING TO TOUGHER ACTIONS AGAINST NORTH KOREA

Chinese administration is of the view that cutting the food and fuel assistance Beijing supplies — would destabilize the isolated North Korean dictatorship, possibly leading to its collapse.

The adverse outcome as a resultant of tougher actions against North Korea may lead to flood of refugees into northeastern China and result in a pro-U.S. government taking over in the North in very recent future.

China may also be mindful of its relations with key trading partner Seoul, strained by Beijing’s reluctance to condemn Pyongyang over the March ship sinking. Raising a clamor over upcoming drills in the wake of a national tragedy would only further alienate South Korea.

CHINA, PERHAPS ARE INTELLEGENT ENOUGH &, WOULD BE AWARE OF THE ACTS THAT MAY MANISFEST, IF MISTAKE AT ANY LEVEL IS COMMITTED, IN FORM OF BENEFICIAL OR  HARMFUL  TO THE INTERESTS OF CHINA.

NEW ERA ON HORIZON TO HAVE RENEWED EXCHANGES WITH WASHINGTON

• President Hu Jintao is scheduled to make a state visit to Washington in January hosted by President Barack Obama — replete with a state dinner and other formal trappings that President George W. Bush never gave the Chinese leader.

• Before that Gen. Ma Xiaotian, one of the commanders who objected to the George Washington’s deployment earlier this year, is due in Washington for defense consultations. Those talks are another step in restoring tattered defense ties, a key goal of the Obama administration.

Thus CHINA at MOMENT could pray alone and practice Restraints on its Defense Policy and Diplomatic Offices.

CHINA could expect some luck also; as it may land up with few sounds reasons to ask USA to pull out it’s Aircraft carrier George Washington far away from Yellow Sea; as it may be gifted some information in the way of wiki leaks.

Whereas USA and South Korea, as on the moment are planning an artillery exercise  as part of the Whole Exercise with USA troops; the North Korea is busy arranging its array of  missiles, blaming that USA awr exercise has put the Korean Peninsula at the brink of War.

 

————-So better wait and watch; even minor laps, on the part of any party may change or dictate; the whole course of global environment in a manner as to alter the path and orbit other than current; and may be to an unthought-of manner or unimagined or unanalyzed till date. The new equation and chapter may take birth to substitute the present equation in International Relations, Trade, Economy & polity.

The discussion in normal context is stopping here for the time being and will be initiated further if set and patterns of variables change due to any reason.

INDIA

I would love to add, before closing, that India till now is required to be on alert but not worried. India has enough might to foil any endeavor having malignancy by any neighboring nation or any lunatic national head. To defend itself, the Mother Nature by itself, has gifted India a number of Cover. Added to that resource gifted to India happens to KNOWLEDGE, which has added glitter gold and is going to perpetually provide India an edge over any other nation, in the form of its human resource, i.e., Citizen of India.

——————Professor Saurabh Singh, Subject Matter: Administrative Sciences; INDIA

[The closing paragraph and few pictures have been added for India Audiences of my Blog, due to their status of fellow citizen.]

*** The Phrase coind by Mr. Saurabh Singh to express a situation in which “one can neither swallo nor omit the things in mouth”.

Always Yourd —  As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

AHEAD FROM PREVIOUS POST [Bank of Japan back in stimulus mode……]

…………………………………AHEAD FROM PREVIOUS POST

[ i.e., Bank of Japan in Stimulus Mode]

The case of Bank of Japan and that of the Federal Reserves at USA turns to be a clear example of  two events, i.e, First being What is Meaning of Zero Interest Rate Regime and Second it demonstrates a great wide valley of interest rate deferential being created among Developed Economies on one side and Emerging Nations Economies on other side. The same was very much visible in the recently concluded IMF Meet of Finance Ministers and Central Banker of these two clear groups.

The two self styled protagonists to name United States of America for Developed Economies and the other one being China for Emerging Economy Nations, could not reach any point of consensus to overcome currency war spread across the Globe. In the ensuing blame game, on one hand USA was requesting IMF-World Bank to make and keep a through visible on currency valuation and exchange rate in China; China spread its worry and held United States of America responsible for destablinsing the economies of the nations grouped as emerging economies. China claimed that it was not only the alone case of what USA managed in Brazil, but China and India too are not being spared.

Few of nations coming under Emerging Economies out of a list of Twenty Eight now are taking the measures to start putting a tax regime on certain kind of cash inflows as well as inflows above a certain volume too. If all the emerging nations are going to be forced to adopt such measures, then very fabric of Global Markets and Globalization as process will become extinct soon and defeat the objectives of the agreements already signed in this direction. But then, this is a situation as on date, which has a very small but sure probability of  shaping out, given the behavior and turn being witnessed in the fiscal as well as monetary policies of Developed Economies.

In an effort to conclude the write up so as it could be gone through easily the is being turned to Indian Markets. Indian Markets may get saved from the damage that huge amount of Cash Inflows are capable of causing. But till the task is not over, the torchbearers at Indian Economic Infrastructure, may not afford a sound sleep.

As per the expectations and sentiments in Indian Economy at present, launch of a large number of IPOs is being expected and awaited. These IPOs may provide a cushion by working as antidotes against huge cash inflows, that may result due to the reasons of a Huge Interest Rate differential.

Its not all over, and will or may continue for longer time with or without time interval, but at the moment I would love to say—————————————————

Always Yours ————— As Usual ———————-Saurabh Singh