A FICTION: NOT FAR AWAY FROM RECENT FUTURE REALITY

In late evening, when I had just pressed the shut down button of my workstation, a colleague of mine entered the office chamber (Officially allotted to me to work).Hello, was the first word uttered out by her and before I could ask the purpose, she herself expressed that she planned to have my company while walking back to home, at least the part of distance that was common to we both. I welcomed the idea and also thanked her for the same. Thus the journey homewards started. While on walk the momentary silence was done away by my colleague, when she requested the permission to ask question that was coming to her mind. I agreed to help her to the limited capacity of mine.

Probably it was the prices of yellow metal that were troubling her and my colleague wanted to know, where the prices are expected to move in future and why. This I am inferring from the talks that continued.

She started the conversation by posing her curiosity as ahead: “Where do you see the price of gold going in the days to come?”

Since, at that moment, I was not exactly focusing on ‘investment advisory’, so I responded by saying that “on a broad level, the price are supposed to continue their northward journey.”

It seems that my response confused her a bit, as she soon came up with another question that “what I mean, when I say a broad level.”

I got the point and then explained to her that “the prices of any commodity do not move in a straight line. When I say on a broad level, it means that the prices will keep moving northwards, but in between they may drop as well, but they will pick up again, and thus will continue to scale up.”

It seems, that she was not ready to buy anything that I said, therefore, she questioned that what lay behind my confidence, which she visualized while I was answering her first curiosity.

Suddenly I realized that majority of investors; rarely scan the external and vital economic variables that are often of political nature. This made me aware that now I need to go bit detailed and also in a manner that she could easily comprehend.

“Well, I was just reading through some material and I realized that there is another solid reason for gold prices to go up,” I told her.

“Is it something other than all the money printing that is happening and is likely to happen in the days to come, all around the world?” she asked.

“Yes”, I answered.

“So what is this new reason?” she was now more curious.

Now I started by posing a question as ahead “Ever heard of Hugo Chavez?” Pat came the reply, “nope” with a supplementary question that now who’s he?

“He is the President of Venezuela, a country in South America.”                                

Probably she got a bit more confused and said that she knew that, but expressed her surprise on the issue that what “Venezuela” has got to do with the price of gold.

This made me aware that now my job was to explain history, international polity, and international trade, cost of transaction and accounting to her, and all this in very limited time of few minutes. I knew that I may be bombarded with whorls of questions.

 I started with letting her know that Venezuela has the 15th largest gold reserves in the world amounting to 401.1 tonnes. A lot of this gold is lying abroad in banks in New York, London and Zurich.

“But why will a country keep its gold overseas?” she interrupted.

 I started to introduce her with history. I said that “a part of the reason comes from history. Till August 15, 1971, the world was on a gold standard. Paper currencies were ultimately convertible into gold. This meant that countries had to settle their deficits in gold.” I followed this by giving an instance from international trade. I asked her to assume that England and Germany are exporting and importing goods from each other. At the end if France exports more to England than England to France, there is a deficit.” This means that England had to pay France. This payment was to be made in gold. A look at her face made me feel that she has now started picking up what I was attempting to explain. I carried on by adding that “now this meant that gold had to be physically moved from England to France, which of course was a pain. Movement meant cost of insurance as well as security.

“She was prompt in asking that “what was the way out?”

 I added for these reasons “a lot of this gold is simply stored overseas at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a part of the Federal Reserve of the United States, the Central Bank of the US).”

“How do you think this is going to help?”

It’s simple; I added and just narrated what Peter Bernstein writes in his book “The Power of Gold”. For example, if England lost gold to France, a guard at the Federal Reserve had merely to bring a dolly to England’s closet, trundle the gold to the French closet, and note the change in the bookkeeping records.’

She got the point, and allowed my request to take her back to Hugo Chavez.

The deliberations continued further, certainly with some statistical inferences. Estimates suggest that nearly 211 tonnes of the 400-odd tonnes of gold that Venezuela has are with banks abroad. Chavez has asked this gold to repatriated back to Venezuela.”

Now this brings a twist in the story, and the discussion to follow will also attempt to answer possible reason for Hugo Chavez’s such an act.

 “Chavez has had an anti-US stance for years and may feel that because of that Venezuela runs the risk of its gold being seized.”

“Gold Seized? Why would such happen and does the possibility of such an act exist?” was the latest in series of questions.

“It sure is. I explained the same by making her aware of the ongoing Libyan foreign exchange reserves crisis, which happens to be an outcome of its foreign reserves being seized by allied nations with declaration of war earlier this year.”

 “But what has all this got to do with the price of gold? To me it’s as simple as me wanting to have gold in my own locker rather than the bank locker.”

I agreed to her statement, while continuing to explain by adding that all is not that straightforward as concluded by her, though to some extent she was correct. The straight forward part of transaction would be limited to 99 tonnes of total 211 tonnes lying abroad, as this 99 tonnes are deposited with the Bank of England in London. Repatriating that back to Venezuela would be a straightforward process.”

Now comes the not so straight forward part, which happens to be of the tune of 112 tonnes of the gold and same is lying abroad with what are known as bullion banks. J P Morgan is one of them. Estimates suggest that Venezuelan gold worth $807 million (or around 450,000 ounces of gold) is lying with it.”

 She was instant, and argued that this should also be as straight forward as it is in the case of Bank of England, London, while simultaneously her facial expressions conveyed me that she wanted to know, if I dare to differ from her opinion. Certainly, I had to differ, and added that things are not always as simple as they seem to be. The statistics again came handy in quoting that “estimates suggest that the total amount of physical gold with J P Morgan currently stands at around 338,303 ounces (1 troy ounce equals 31.1 grams).”

Now, it seemed that she was out of reasons, as she expressed her ignorance about having to come across any news in media regarding, such a huge bank robbery in which approximately 1,11,697 ounce or 3473.8 kilo grams worth gold was looted.  I had to instantly chip in by saying that, this is not a case of bank lifting, but a way of functioning of financial system in general and banking sector in particular. Let me add an example to illustrate it? I sought her permission. The phenomenon goes as explained ahead [the attempt was to explain the process by making it as easy as possible, so that even a novice can understand].

“Central banks around the world had a huge amount of gold lying in their vaults, not earning any return. The end of 2007 witnessed the stock of gold with central banks around the world rising to 32,000 tonnes of gold.”

 I requested her to be more attentive to whatever I was going to add now. Out of the 32,000 tonnes gold held, the Central Bank lent approximately 14,000 tonnes to Bullion Banks like J P Morgan. James Turk and John Rubino in their coauthored book The Collapse of the Dollar, have argued that “lending, for instance, involves the central bank transferring gold to a major private bank, known as bullion bank, which pays the central bank a small-but-positive interest rate, then sells the gold in the open market.”

In this manner “central banks convert the gold into cash and then deploy this cash, somewhere to earn some positive rate of return. This based on a very fundamental assumption that idle assets provide no return, and there is fair possibility that such assets may ultimately add up some cost to the holder.” These costs may range from cost of storage to cost of security. As per meaning conveyed by the operative word “lending”, since the gold has been lent, therefore, the central banks have all the rights to, and can demand it back, whenever they want.

She chipped in by adding that probably “this is what Venezuela is doing right now”; and thus conveyed me a feeling that she was sincerely following the every single word uttered by me. 

 I nodded in agreement and continued further by adding that, since, the bullion banks have promised to return the borrowed gold to the central banks so they will have to return the same. In prevailing situations these bullion banks are not having the volume of gold that was lent to them by Central Bank. In financial and monetary world, this position is conveyed by the term ‘short’, and this means that these bullion banks are ‘short’ gold.

Now comes a significant turn in events, that may work as catalyst to force the prices of gold to break the roof. As the situation deliberated above suggests that, in case, sometime in future, these bullion banks are asked to deposit the volume of  gold lent to them by central bank, they will be left with no choice and would be obligated to buy gold in order to repay the central banks’.”

“So, as I can get, it goes like, that in such a scenario the bullion banks like J P Morgan will now have to buy back gold from the market in order to repay the Venezuelan government, given the situation that Venezuela has around 450,000 ounces of gold deposited with J P Morgan, whereas J P Morgan at present has only 338,303 ounces of gold in its accounts/ record books,” she added.

Exactly, I said in agreement, and carried the deliberations forward by adding, that this buying will lead to the price of gold rising further. I knew that now she has got answer to her question, but then too, I continued it by saying that this is only one part of the story.

Much like a child, who is curious to know about everything, she was now eager to learn that what the remaining part of story was now. She requested me to unfold the other part of the story.

I continued by giving her a reference of a report titled “Thing That Make You Go Hmmm” , and told that this report points out, ‘Chavez’s move could set in motion a chain of events whereby Central banks who store the bulk of their gold overseas in ‘safe’ locations scramble to repossess their country’s true ‘wealth’. If that happens, the most high-stakes game of musical chairs the world has ever seen will have begun’,” I said.

 “This sounds very scary”, she added.

“Yes, you are very much correct while mentioning that the report further states that ‘any delay in repatriating Venezuela’s gold could potentially start a frantic scramble by central banks to claim their physical. God save the scenario, but if it actually happens, rest assured that gold price will be on fire. A scenario will take place, which has neither been seen in past, nor even imagined.

It will give birth to an economic tsunami of magnitude, which will turn the great economic recession witnessed by world or even the jasmine revolution and contribution of social media to same to seem dwarf.

Don’t be surprised if I that there is enough in media to believe U S Govt. Manufactured Fake Gold

Perhaps, there are only few who can imagine the magnitude of risk, specifically if they are not linked to foreign trade. Let me illustrate it. It’s one thing to counterfeit a twenty or hundred dollar bill. The amount of financial damage is usually limited to a specific region and only affects dozens of people and thousands of dollars. Secret Service agents quickly notify the banks on how to recognize these phony bills and retail outlets usually have procedures in place (such as special pens to test the paper) to stop their proliferation.

This is the most sacred of all commodities because it is thought to be the most trusted reliable and valuable means of saving wealth.

A recent discovery — in October of 2009 — has been suppressed by the main stream media but has been circulating among the “big money” brokers and financial kingpins and is just now being revealed to the public. It involves the gold in Fort Knox — the US Treasury gold — that is the equity of our national wealth. In short, millions (with an “m”) of gold bars are fake!.Who did this? None, but the United States Government, as claimed by Chinese Authorities.

Background
In October of 2009 the Chinese received a shipment of gold bars. Gold is regularly exchanges between countries to pay debts and to settle the so-called balance of trade. Most gold is exchanged and stored in vaults under the supervision of a special organization based in London, the London Bullion Market Association (or LBMA). When the shipment was received, the Chinese government asked that special tests be performed to guarantee the purity and weight of the gold bars. In this test, four small holed are drilled into the gold bars and the metal is then analyzed.

Officials were shocked to learn that the bars were fake. They contained cores of tungsten with only a outer coating of real gold. What’s more, these gold bars, containing serial numbers for tracking, originated in the US and had been stored in Fort Knox for years. There were reportedly between, 5600 to 5700 bars, weighing 400 oz. each, in the shipment!

At first many gold experts assumed the fake gold originated in China, the world’s best knock-off producers. The Chinese were quick to investigate and issued a statement that implicated the US in the scheme.

What the Chinese Uncovered

Roughly 15 years ago — during the Clinton Administration [think Robert Rubin, Sir Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers] — between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten blanks were allegedly manufactured by a very high-end, sophisticated refiner in the USA [more than 16 Thousand metric tonnes]. Subsequently, 640,000 of these tungsten blanks received their gold plating and WERE shipped to Ft. Knox and remain there to this day.

According to the Chinese investigation, the balance of this 1.3 million to 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten cache was also gold plated and then allegedly “sold” into the international market. Apparently, the global market is literally “stuffed full of 400 oz salted bars”. Perhaps, its worth is as much as, 600-billion U S dollars.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

 RELATED LINKS FOR READERS WHO WANT TO GO IN MORE DETAILS TO BEFORE COMMENTING ON STORY

1. http://etfdailynews.com/2011/08/17/venezuelan-president-hugo-chavez-sends-precious-metal-etfs-a-wakeup-call-gld-iau-slv-gdx-agq/
2. http://philosophers-stone.co.uk/wordpress/2011/08/hugo-chavez-gold-runs-bank-runs-and-bank-holidays/
3. http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/chavez-officially-nationalizes-venezuela-s-gold-industry-174207
4. http://notime4bull.com/aggregator/sources/13
5. http://mikepiro.com/blog/as-chavez-pulls-venezuelas-gold-from-jp-morgan-is-the-great-scramble-for-physical-starting/
6. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/traders-brace-for-venezuela-gold-transfer/article2134031/print/
7. http://www.bighaber.com/haber/chavez-to-nationalize-venezuelan-gold-industry-1072000.html
8. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/global_082611.php
9. http://americasfinancialmeltdown.blogspot.com/2010/11/below-is-antiwar_4391.html
10. http://mikepiro.com/blog/ron-paul-audit-federal-reserve-gold-stores/
11. http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/061976-2009-11-26-us-govt-manufactured-fake-gold.htm
12. http://www.the-boondocks.org/forum/index.php?t=msg&&goto=157202#msg_157202s

OIL POLITICS, SPECULATION, CHAIN REACTION AND MANAGEMENT

It requires quantum of intelligence, to infer from what is happening in the markets, or politico-socio-economic across the globe, to why it is happening. Things are never as simple as they seem to be. This would become comprehendible and evident as soon as one reads, relates and analyses the instances mentioned hereunder:

“Crude oil prices peaked to US $ 100 – 115 a barrel in April and May 2011 and moved downwards after that to touch a rate of US $ 90 – 92 per barrel in June 2011. In such a scenario, price increase by the Union Government should have been announced in April – May 2011, but the same did not occur. The Government found June 2011 to be the auspicious time for announcing price hike when the prices had nearly normalized. What could have been the motive for doing so? Simple answer is that April – May 2011 was the time when five states were going to elect the assembly members. The states being, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry. ”

“If one goes by what the campaign managers of Congress had to say on the Rahul Gandhi’s much publicized kisan padyatra-(which as claimed was undertaken to champion the cause of the farmers of the region) –  was conceived to detract the public attention from the issue of hike in petroleum products and their possible spiraling effect on inflation. This yatra detracted the lot of electronic media attention from the campaign that opposition forces such as BJP and Left were seeking to build up on the oil price hike related issues. ”

“Since the Oil shock of 1973, USA strategically took measures to control the oil market by keeping continued focus on West Asian Region. In 1980, Jimmy Carter, the then President of USA declared Persian Gulf an exclusive zone of American influence and created a rapid deployment of forces, which latter turned into what is known as US Central Command or CENTCOM.  ”

“As is being believed by majority that skirmish in Libya is behind recent spurt in prices, should correct their facts. Libya produces less than 3 per cent of global petroleum output. Where as Saudi Arabia has already made up for the current shortfall and its excess stocks are more than that of Libya and Algeria put together. In fact in present situation too oil production at many of Libyan facilities continues even in civil war there. ”

“The argument being forwarded by few is that rising demand from China and India has forced an upward trend in oil prices is also unjustified. Though these two countries do account for growing share of global demand, but then same is counterbalanced by slower demand from USA and Europe.”

“There is still a wide spread perception that cartel of Oil Exporting Countries can manipulate and influence the prices by changing the level of their supplies. Reality today is much different. The OPEC has turned from being a cartel to being a minor player today. Non OPEC countries now account for increasingly significant proportion of global supply. Russia has already snatched the title of being largest supplier of crude oil from Saudi Arabia since 2009.  ”

Many more such instances may be quoted. It’s not being quoted in anticipation that the variety of above instances is good enough to comprehend that nearly none of the factors assumed or arguments forwarded are capable of forcing any kind of hike in prices of the crude oil.

 

Then what is it, which is responsible for hike in crude oil price?

 

…….any guesses, if not, then storm your grey matter and keep visiting this place in hope of getting answer to this simple question.

 

Always Yours — As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

 

 

US Celebrates Osama Bin Laden’s Death while Allies Try to Keep Smile Intact

A firefighter waves to the crowd as people celebrate after Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in Pakistan, during a spontaneous celebration in New York’s Times Square, May 2, 2011

U.S. President Barack Obama was preparing to announce Osama bin Laden was dead when word got out and crowds started gathering late Sunday outside the White House in Washington and at Ground Zero in New York City.

From Times Square to Ground Zero to the White House, the familiar chant of “USA , USA” resonated as citizens learned that the Osama bin Laden was dead.

The announcement sparked immediate jubilation. In Time Square, people gathered around giant news tickers to see the latest updates. Pam Sather recalls the moment she heard the world’s most wanted terrorist was dead.

“It is just amazing, we were just walking out of a pizza joint,” she said. “And, all the sudden we saw in the bar on the television. We were just glued.”

At the White House, young Americans climbed trees, climbed light posts, donned American flags and sang the national anthem.

The feeling was euphoric as thousands of Americans gathered in front of the White House just hours after U.S. President Barack Obama made the announcement that Osama bin Laden was dead.

For many, including student Kathryn Costello, it became a moment of reflection, thinking back to the nearly 3,000 lives lost on September 11, 2001, an act of terror Osama bin Laden claimed responsibility for.

“I think a lot of us have grown up with the memory of 9/11 and sort of this constant notion of a threat and the danger of terrorism,” said Costello. “So this is a triumphant moment for all of us.”  

For many U.S. soldiers, including U.S. Marine Jake Diliberto, this is a day they have been fighting for.

“We feel really really vindicated that we finally got him,” he said. “This is our generation’s VE, VJ. This is our generation’s victory and enduring freedom day.”

Patriotism filled the air outside the White House into the early hours Monday.

Two hours after the announcement, with celebrations still roaring, the U.S. Secret Service brought in barriers to push back revelers from the White House.

International student Sunny Shih said the importance of the historical moment reaches beyond the gates of the White House.

“This is a very important moment for not only the U.S.A., but for the entire world,” said Shih.

Many world leaders are praising the achievement of U.S. military forces Sunday in Pakistan, who killed Osama bin Laden, captured his body and buried it at sea. But they are cautioning bin Laden’s death elevates security risks around the world.

Back at the White House, the focus remains on the justice the president said was delivered.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

Source: Voice of America

”Kayani feared condemning Guv murder may endanger army unity”

Pakistan”s army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who had “declined” to publicly condemn the January killing of Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer, had told Western envoys that there were “too many soldiers” in the ranks who “sympathised” with the assassin, a noted author has claimed.

For its part, the army has so far failed to express regret on either Minority Affairs Minister Shahbaz Bhatti”s murder or Taseer”s, Lahore-based author Ahmed Rashid, also a senior journalist, wrote in ”The New York Review of Books”. Both Bhatti, the only Christian member of the Pakistani Cabinet, and Taseer were killed for opposing the controversial blasphemy law.

Kayani “declined to publicly condemn Taseer”s death or even to issue a public condolence to his family. He told Western ambassadors in January in Islamabad that there were too many soldiers in the ranks who sympathise with the killer,” Rashid wrote.

The army chief showed the envoys “a scrapbook of photographs of Taseer”s killer being hailed as a hero by fellow police officers. Any public statement, he hinted, could endanger the army”s unity,” Rashid said.

Behind this silence lies “something more sinister,” he wrote. “For decades the army and the ISI have controlled the extremist groups, arming and training them in exchange for their continuing to serve as proxy forces in Afghanistan and Kashmir. But in recent years, the army has lost control of them and they are striking targets of their own.”

“Yet the army has refused to help crack down on its rogue proteges despite the fact that extremists have increasingly attacked the army and the ISI itself,” Rashid said.

This is all the more ominous in view of the resources the military commands: half a million men, another half a million reserves, 110 nuclear arms, according to US media estimates, and one of the largest intelligence agencies in the world, the ISI, which has an estimated 100,000 employees, he noted.

“If the army has now surrendered any willingness to take on the extremists, the political establishment had already given up long ago,” Rashid wrote.

President Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of slain PPP leader Benazir Bhutto, is no stranger to extremism himself and his populist base has traditionally voted for the party”s “anti-mullah, anti-army and pro-people policies,” he said.

“Unfortunately those principles were abandoned by a series of corrupt and ineffectual leaders, and the PPP today is not even a shadow of what it once was,” he said, while noting that Zardari has also “backtracked” on foreign policy goals such as improving relations with India and Afghanistan.

“The security agencies have unleashed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) — the largest and most feared extremist group in Pakistan, which was behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks — on to the streets of Lahore,” Rashid said.

“Right now Pakistan is becoming a place where there is an army without a country,”  wrote Rashid.

 

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

Source:http://news.in.msn.com/international/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4994774

THE JASMINE REVOLUTION–Part – I

At times, few events, though not very often noticed, normally not even thought worth being covered by national media, but when the acts happen to be of SUPREME SACRIFICE or same order, change course of not alone history but geography too. The attempt is not to dub an act of self immolation as an act of bravery, and normally hundreds of cases of self immolation and attempts of self immolation get reported in media every year, besides lot many which even fail to find space in news media in nearly all the corners of the world which without fuelling in a minor change in governance.

The name “Mohamed Bouazizi” is not a famous or well known name even today, and thus indirectly gives an impression that history in due course of time may even forget to contain any record of this name for reference of future generations. The act of self immolation by this Tunisian Street Vendor to protest against the corruption is an apt example of helplessness being faced by common men, irrespective of him being a citizen, subject, at mercy of any dictator, fascist or Junta or probably any other form of Structure of Governance.

Strange are ways things are destined, much beyond human vision and imagination, it seems if  21^st Century were a Century of Convergence of Scale for nearly every sphere of human related activities. A Century standing witness to Convergence of Communication Technology and Tools, Convergence of Economies of Nations, Convergence of Trade, Convergence of Financial Governance, and perhaps even Convergence of Revolutions against Governance Structures across various nations and probably the list continue…s, neither can it be covered in this deliberation nor will it be attempted.

Till a couple of months back, the individual of the day was busy in himself thinking that all the problems could happen and will happen with others only, aptly defined selfish by Adam Smith and the league, was thinking of governance all around the globe being cool, calm and pleasant except the places messed up by United States of America. Perhaps still the individuals will remain individuals and will rarely form a society or nation; as people aware of history know very well that even the phenomenon or concept of nation is a gift of as recent as nineteenth century.

Connecting back, it was morning of December 17, 2010 when Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26 years old street vendor of Tunisia immolated himself protesting against corruption, an event of the magnitude often not even noticed by world media, the Arab World has not remained the same as it was till hours before of this act on the same day. It has left whole geo-political area simmering and inhabitants rumbling.  It has initiated a chain reaction.

The chain reaction, that has already made twenty three years old rule of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, (in power since 1987) now a chapter in history of Tunisia. It did not stop here itself. It perhaps turned a torchbearer for other nations of geopolitical area often called as Gulf (British call it as Middle East), or as the author calls it, the Middle West. It did not stop at Tunisia. The next link in chain turned out to be Egypt. In Egypt, the war hero of Egypt Israel War of 1973 that made Egypt a power centre in Middle West and one time air force officer Hosni Mubarak was shown door after his thirty year rule. To world it may look a silent transition made success by people of Egypt but sources say that at least 300 people lost their life and another 3000 suffered injuries. Reality about real causalities is not known due to initial crack down on media and still no real transition to any new form of governance taking place. It is probably still another Hosni Mubarak just individual may differ, as no real transition to any form of governance has taken place, but junta in control.

“The phenomenon being deliberated, as on date, has come to be known as SIDI BOUZID REVOLT in Arab World and as JASMINE REVOLUTION elsewhere.”

Similar turmoil, protests against governments in place, in numerous other nations of gulf is being seen and also the ruthlessness and lack of human emotions with which they are being suppressed and retaliated by various governments in place. It is the same story today in Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya and Yemen.

Probably crossing the borders of a nation or two, some simmer is being felt in China too. The world that is networked today with Internet or World Wide Web (normally first place to face fire and wrath of unpopular governments) is now witness to call for Jasmine Revolution that has spread through Internet in China and Chinese police could be seen in high alert cracking down on expected activists oriented towards democracy in Beijing and Shanghai.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

THE ARRIVAL OF U. S. S. GEORGE WASHINGTON AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN YELLOW SEA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A CONUNDRUM FOR CHINA

THE ARRIVAL OF U. S. S. GEORGE WASHINGTON AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN YELLOW SEA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A CONUNDRUM FOR CHINA

Professor Saurabh Singh‘s comment on International Polity

Scholar of Domain of Knowledge Named Administrative Sciences

Dilemma of nature that may be dubbed as unique in its own kind, i.e,

?        TO SPEAK OR NOT TO SPEAK

ƒ       Should it protest angrily and aggravate ties with Washington, or

ƒ       quietly accept the presence of a key symbol of American military pre-eminence off Chinese shores

?        BACKGROUND

ƒ        The USS George Washington, accompanied by escort ships, is to take part in military drills with South Korea following North Korea’s shelling of a South Korean island.

ƒ        The Shelling on Tuesday is one of the most serious confrontations since the Korean War a half-century ago.

?           IT’S A SCENARIO WHICH CHINA HAS ALWAYS PREVENT

Only four months ago, Chinese officials and military officers shrilly warned Washington against sending a carrier into the Yellow Sea for an earlier set of exercises

Some said it would escalate tensions after the sinking of a South Korean navy ship blamed on North Korea.

Others went further, calling the carrier deployment a threat to Chinese security.

?           CHINESE BELIEVE THAT THEIR OBJECTIONS WORKED

Although Washington never said why, no aircraft carrier sailed into the strategic Yellow Sea, which laps at several Chinese provinces and the Korean peninsula.

This time around, with outrage high over the shelling, the U.S. raising pressure on China to rein in wayward ally North Korea

a Chinese-American summit in the works, the warship is coming, and Beijing is muffling any criticisms.

PROFESSOR MICHAEL RICHARDSON, Commented..,

[A visiting research fellow at Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies]

“I think China must be quietly cursing North Korea under their breath.”

“The Scenario can very well be taken as a of the adverse Outcome of North Korea’s most recent belligerence.

Belligerence by NORTH KOREA has transformed in “HOT POTATO IN THE MOUTH SCENARIO***” for CHINA

China, as of now can neither “open the mouth nor Keep it shut”; as regards to deployment of U.S. Naval Ship George Washington, which happens to be a Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carrier, in the East China Sea,”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman reiterated Beijing’s long-standing insistence that foreign navies obtain its permission before undertaking military operations inside China’s exclusive economic zone, which extends 230 miles (370 kilometers) from its coast.

The statement also reiterated calls for calm and restraint but did not directly mention the Yellow Sea or the planned exercises.

Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid, in an editorial expressed its worries by stating  that a U.S. carrier would upset the delicate balance in the Yellow Sea, [Ignoring the fact that the George Washington has taken part in drills in those waters numerous times before.]

North Korea, not ready to come out of its belligerence, has warned that the U.S.-South Korean military drills were pushing the peninsula to the “brink of war.”

?        A MORE PASSIVE APPROACH SEEMS A BETTER TRADE OFF FOR CHINA

Its credibility with Washington and trading partner South Korea would get a boost

Put North Korea on notice that its actions are wearing China’s patience thin

PROFESSOR ZHU FENG, Director Peking University’s Center for International and Strategic Studies opined:

“The Chinese government is trying to send Pyongyang a signal that, if they continue to be so provocative, China will just leave the North Koreans to themselves.” He added further that “What China should do is make the North Koreans feel that they have got to stop messing around.”

 

CHINA FEARS RESORTING TO TOUGHER ACTIONS AGAINST NORTH KOREA

Chinese administration is of the view that cutting the food and fuel assistance Beijing supplies — would destabilize the isolated North Korean dictatorship, possibly leading to its collapse.

The adverse outcome as a resultant of tougher actions against North Korea may lead to flood of refugees into northeastern China and result in a pro-U.S. government taking over in the North in very recent future.

China may also be mindful of its relations with key trading partner Seoul, strained by Beijing’s reluctance to condemn Pyongyang over the March ship sinking. Raising a clamor over upcoming drills in the wake of a national tragedy would only further alienate South Korea.

CHINA, PERHAPS ARE INTELLEGENT ENOUGH &, WOULD BE AWARE OF THE ACTS THAT MAY MANISFEST, IF MISTAKE AT ANY LEVEL IS COMMITTED, IN FORM OF BENEFICIAL OR  HARMFUL  TO THE INTERESTS OF CHINA.

NEW ERA ON HORIZON TO HAVE RENEWED EXCHANGES WITH WASHINGTON

• President Hu Jintao is scheduled to make a state visit to Washington in January hosted by President Barack Obama — replete with a state dinner and other formal trappings that President George W. Bush never gave the Chinese leader.

• Before that Gen. Ma Xiaotian, one of the commanders who objected to the George Washington’s deployment earlier this year, is due in Washington for defense consultations. Those talks are another step in restoring tattered defense ties, a key goal of the Obama administration.

Thus CHINA at MOMENT could pray alone and practice Restraints on its Defense Policy and Diplomatic Offices.

CHINA could expect some luck also; as it may land up with few sounds reasons to ask USA to pull out it’s Aircraft carrier George Washington far away from Yellow Sea; as it may be gifted some information in the way of wiki leaks.

Whereas USA and South Korea, as on the moment are planning an artillery exercise  as part of the Whole Exercise with USA troops; the North Korea is busy arranging its array of  missiles, blaming that USA awr exercise has put the Korean Peninsula at the brink of War.

 

————-So better wait and watch; even minor laps, on the part of any party may change or dictate; the whole course of global environment in a manner as to alter the path and orbit other than current; and may be to an unthought-of manner or unimagined or unanalyzed till date. The new equation and chapter may take birth to substitute the present equation in International Relations, Trade, Economy & polity.

The discussion in normal context is stopping here for the time being and will be initiated further if set and patterns of variables change due to any reason.

INDIA

I would love to add, before closing, that India till now is required to be on alert but not worried. India has enough might to foil any endeavor having malignancy by any neighboring nation or any lunatic national head. To defend itself, the Mother Nature by itself, has gifted India a number of Cover. Added to that resource gifted to India happens to KNOWLEDGE, which has added glitter gold and is going to perpetually provide India an edge over any other nation, in the form of its human resource, i.e., Citizen of India.

——————Professor Saurabh Singh, Subject Matter: Administrative Sciences; INDIA

[The closing paragraph and few pictures have been added for India Audiences of my Blog, due to their status of fellow citizen.]

*** The Phrase coind by Mr. Saurabh Singh to express a situation in which “one can neither swallo nor omit the things in mouth”.

Always Yourd —  As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

THE DRAGON AND THE ELEPHANT SHOULD TANGO

“THE DRAGON AND THE ELEPHANT SHOULD TANGO,” Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao suggested today.

Wen came up with this quip to emphasise the need for the two Asian giants, whose rivalry has been compared to that between the dragon (China) and elephant (India), to come closer.

Speaking to group of editors and scholars before leaving for Pakistan he said that India and China were partners in cooperation and not rivals.

Wen had warm words of appreciation for his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh describing him as a person “with an open and inclusive mind”.

The Chinese leader mentioned that the Cambridge University had brought out a publication containing speeches by him and Singh whose common theme was the importance of open and inclusive societies.

He distributed copies of that publication with his autograph to those present at the interaction.

Wen mentioned that the Indian Prime Minister had last year sent him a gift package of black tea and in return he had sent Chinese white tea. “That reminds me of how our two countries connect with each other.”

China to provide data of Sutlej river to India

China will provide India with real-time flood data of Sutlej river during monsoon, according to an agreement signed between the two countries.

Under the five year agreement, China will set up a special station in Tibet to monitor rainfall and flood to enable India get advanced warnings.

In turn, India will pay Rs 12 lakh per annum to China. The money will be used by Beijing to maintain the station, sources in the government said.

The flood data will be provided twice every day between June and October every year.

“Since we have five to six hydro electric power projects on the downstream Sutlej, the data will help us operate the projects in a safer environment,” a source said.

Floods in downstream Sutlej have been creating problems on the Indian side.

In July this year, India had renewed a similar agreement with China to get flood data of the Brahmaputra river. The agreement was signed in 2004.

Though China had been providing flood data of the Sutlej, the agreement will help streamline the system, especially during the monsoon season. New Delhi had been paying Rs 12 lakh per annum to China for data of the Brahmaputra.

Always Yours– As Usual — Saurabh Singh

Source: Business Satndard

Is this the Picture we Want to Show Case to Foreign Investors & Global Audiences

IN GUJARAT, E-LITERATE PAANWALA GOOGLES NREGS, STUMBLES ON RS 1-CRORE SCAM

A newly e-literate village paanwala’s obsession with Google has blown the lid off a unique NREGS scam in Porbandar. The motley bunch of beneficiaries include affluent NRIs, doctors, government officials, teachers and well-off farmers — all shown as unemployed village labourers holding NREGS job cards. So far, the money siphoned off comes to nearly Rs 1 crore.

On paper, there are 963 NREGS job cardholders at Kotda village in Kutiyana taluka of Porbandar district. Records show they have been paid over Rs 95 lakh for their ‘labour’ over the past three years. In reality though, none of them have ever dug wells or built roads in their lives or actually received any money for the same under NREGS or otherwise.

A newly e-literate village paanwala's obsession with Google has blown the lid off a unique NREGS scam in Porbandar

The scam came to light after Aslam Khokhar (37), a Class X dropout and a paan shop owner in Kutiyana learnt how to use computers and searched NREGS on Google. “I was thrilled to find every detail of NREGS work in our area on the website. But I then came across the job card of a friend, who is a government employee.

I searched and found there are doctors, teachers and NRIs I personally know in the village, listed as ‘labourers’ on the site,” said Khokar.

Veja Modedara, an independent councillor at Kutiyana taluka panchayat, and Congress worker like Bhanukant Odedara soon joined hands with Khokhar. The trio conducted door-to-door meetings with villagers named in the website and found they had neither worked on any NREGS site nor received any wages.

Several like Bharat Ganga (23), who has been to Muscat for the past three years, were shocked to learn that they were named as NREGS employees on record and have been even paid for their work. “How can this be? I moved out of India three years ago,” Ganga told The Indian Express.

Varu Karsan Uka (38), an official with the Pashcim Gujarat Vij Company Limited for 15 years also holds the job card number GJ-21-005-030-001/726. Even his wife has been also named as a card holding labourer. According to the records, the couple had built roads and dug wells for 60 days and received Rs 6,000 for their work. “How can I possibly get an NREGS job card when I am a state government official ?” said Uka.

Dr Dayaram Babhania (58), a well-known physician in Kutiyana too holds a job card (number GJ-21-005-030-001/526), though he admits never to have lifted a pickaxe in his entire life.

Other like him on the list are Range Forest Officer Jesa Odedara, Forest Guard Arshi Bhattu, Gujarat State Road Transport Corporation (GSRTC) employees Meru Odedara and Arjan Odedara, teacher Leela Dasa, Ex-serviceman Kunti Rama and NRIs Haja Modha, who have long left the village and settled in Israel. On paper, all are ‘labourers’ and many have been paid too.

Kutiyana Sub-Inspector I Damor said the police probe will take a while since details of all the 963 accounts need to be verified.

Kutiyana Taluka Development Officer J Gamit said, “Preliminary investigation by the department has revealed that at least 73 cardholders are government employees, professionals or NRIs.”

District Development Officer K D Bhatt said: “We will begin a door-to-door survey to find the exact scale of the scam.”

Always Yours —- As Usual—-Saurabh Singh

Source: http://in.news.yahoo.com/48/20101115/804/tnl-in-gujarat-e-literate-paanwala-googl.html?printer=1:::: Hiral DaveMon, Nov 15 06:09 AM

Does Globe today Looks up to US For Such Stories

MERCY KILLINGS

Maariyamma is likely to be killed by her children because they cannot afford her. They will give her a loving oil bath. Several glasses of coconut water. A mouthful of mud. Perhaps a poison injection. She is just one of many old parents in Tamil Nadu dying in this way. But no one blinks at these ritual murders.

IN TAMIL, it is known as thalaikoothal. A leisurely oil bath. An exercise in love and health when given to newborn children, a ceremonial beginning to festivals, and the universal answer to pitiless summers. In Tamil Nadu’s small industry hub of Virudhunagar, however, it is the beginning of slow murder. The marker of the devastating poverty that makes a son kill his own aging mother.

DEATH DO US APART AFTER HER FRIEND’S SON TURNED MERCY KILLER, MAARIYAMMA LEFT HER VILLAGE

Young family members of this district in southern Tamil Nadu have been pushing their infirm, elderly dependents to death because they cannot afford to take care of them. When 65-year-old Maariyamma suspected this might happen to her too, she moved out of her son’s house two years ago. “I’m not well enough to live on my own, but it is better than being killed by them,” she says. Amazingly, there is no bitterness in her voice. Or anger. “They’re struggling hard to take care of their own children,” says Maariyamma, of her sons. She places no blame. Her two sons and two daughters are farm labourers who travel to different villages every sowing and harvesting season. Seeing her children at pains to run their house, and feed and educate her grandchildren, Maariyamma knew she was a burden. She knew how it would end if she didn’t leave.

Maariyamma had seen it happen to other men and women of her age. Her neighbour, Parvathy, had been paralysed at the age of 76. “She had only one son,” says Maariyamma. “And he was working in Chennai, surviving on some menial job there. How could he afford to look after his bedridden mother?” One day, Maariyamma says, Parvathy’s son came, “did it” and went back to Chennai. “What else could he do?” she asks. Again, in place of anger or fear, there is helpless resignation. And a strange empathy for the person who might elaborately plan her murder.

Thalaikoothal works thus: an extensive oil bath is given to an elderly person before the crack of dawn. The rest of the day, he or she is given several glasses of cold tender coconut water. Ironically, this is everything a mother would’ve told her child not do while taking an oil bath. “Tender coconut water taken in excess causes renal failure,” says Dr Ashok Kumar, a practicing physician in Madurai. By evening, the body temperature falls sharply. In a day or two, the old man or woman dies of high fever. This method is fail-proof “because the elderly often do not have the immunity to survive the sudden fever, says Dr Kumar.

Over THE years, other methods have evolved too. The most painful one is when mud dissolved in water is forced down; it causes indigestion and an undignified death. Velayudham of Help age India says the families often take the mud from their own land, if they have any. “It is believed that this makes their souls happy,” he says.

Dorairaj, a farmer in Satur, confesses that Muniammal, a distant relative, had been killed four months earlier. She was 78, and too weak to fend for herself. She was given an oil bath, but somehow survived. After a few days, she was given the ‘milk treatment’. “When the milk is being poured, the nose is held tight,” says Dorairaj. This ‘milk treatment’ is often preceded by starvation. The household stops serving the parent solid food. “When milk is poured uninterruptedly into the mouth, it goes into the respiratory track. A starving person cannot withstand even a moment’s suffocation,” says 60-year-old Paul Raj, coordinator of a district elders’ welfare association.

For those who choose poisoning as their modus operandi, Ganeshan is the man to call. This middle-aged man lives in Paramakkudy village, and introduces himself as a ‘medical practitioner’. In reality, he is Doctor Death. Ganeshan sources and administers lethal injections on demand. According to him, it is simply a service. “I am not killing anybody who may have a longer life. It is done only in the last and final stage of one’s life. Why should they suffer in poverty?” he justifies. Ganeshan defends his ‘profession’ but says he’d rather have some other means of livelihood. Azhagappan, a small shop owner, revealed that Ganeshan is not even a trained nurse. “He had worked in a hospital as the lowest grade attendant for a few months. That’s where he learned to give injections.” Azhagappan estimates that Ganeshan charges Rs. 300 to Rs. 3,000. Ganeshan refuses to disclose the chemical combination of his poison.

Though everyone seems to be in the know, thalaikoothal officially remained unexposed until the death of 60-year-old Selvaraj, of Ramasamipuram village in Virudhunagar on 18 June this year. Selvaraj, who was bed-ridden due to an accident, died suddenly. Asokan, Selvaraj’s nephew in Virudhunagar, raised the alarm on his uncle’s death. He registered an FIR, and subsequently a woman named Zeenath was arrested for administering a poisonous injection. Prabhakar, the Virudhunagar Commissioner of Police, admits that it is hard to find any evidence. “The body was cremated and there is no scope for a re-examination of the corpse,” he says.

Zeenath has been released on bail and refused to talk to TEHELKA when we met her in her village, Ramasamipuram. Some villagers claimed that Zeenath was a ‘professional mercy killer.

A few days after Selvaraj’s death came to light, a newspaper published a report exposing more mysterious deaths in the district. When the district administration of Virudhunagar learnt how widespread the mercy killing was, it ordered an investigation. “It was shocking for all of us,” says V K Shanmugham, district collector in Virudhunagar. He soon realised that conventional state responses like arrests, warnings and interrogations would not even scratch the surface.

Thalaikoothal lay in the indefinable space between crime and desperate acts of poverty. It was social custom, a collective family decision, a ritual goodbye to a loved one who had lived a full life. Sometimes, it was the victim’s own idea. Shanmugham found that many called it a path to “eternal peace”, an escape from the violence of poverty. “It is difficult to view this simply in a legal or criminal framework,” he adds.

If thalaikoothal is seen as a crime, an entire village is accomplice. Community members and relatives not only support the practice, several even arrive a day before the auspicious oil bath to meet the aged parent one last time. Everybody knows the man or woman is going to die.

Killing is indeed a brutal solution to financial burdens, but community members claim there is no alternative. “It does not mean that they do not love their parents,” says Chellathorai, the president of Paneerpetty village Panchayat.

Paul Raj, of the district elders welfare association, recently requested the district collector for government protection for the elderly. “The aged in these villages are highly vulnerable. We demand government’s immediate action.” Raj, however, realises that while police forces can protect an aged woman from her children, what they really need is protection from penury. “If the seniors had some income, they would not be considered so burdensome,” says Raj. “For example, if they got more pension, or at least got it regularly, it might give some respite.”

Kasi, a daily wager, moved out of his son’s house after his wife died. He’s not sure if he’s 65 or 70, but his shock of white hair, equally white handlebar moustache, and soil-black wrinkled skin are testament to his long and arduous life. Kasi had decided to leave when he watched his children grow tired of tending to their father’s every need. “I’m very fond of them, and can’t imagine they will try to kill me,” he says. “But anyway, I didn’t want to push them to any extreme step.” Whether he too would have been invited for that chilling oil bath some years down, Kasi doesn’t know. And he didn’t stick around to find out.

 

Thalaikoothal is Not a Crime, But a Social Custom for Them

ACROSS VIRUDHUNAGAR, even as elderly men and women leave their homes, they make excuses for their children. “My son was struggling with his own life,” says Kasi. They put up a brave front. “I’m surviving fine with the ration rice at 2 per kilo,” says a reed-thin Maariyamma. They starve, and sigh, but do not complain. Thalaikoothal is to them not cowardly murder, but a brave farewell. Kasi and Maariyamma do not see how extreme it is, how dramatic. For them, it is a sort of practical love that is simply about survival.

Always Yours —————– As Usual——————-Saurabh Singh

Source: Tehelka Magazine, Vol 7, Issue 46, Dated November 20, 2010

Get Introduced with Barak M Obama — before he Lands in Mumbai-INDIA

Obama at bottom of his popularity and further confidence broken by  Poll Results

India, stand by to welcome a wounded American President. A crushing defeat in the mid-term Congressional elections stares President Obama’s Democratic Party on the eve of his four-nation trip that begins with a three-day Mumbai-Delhi swing later this week. The expected rout is likely to impact his agenda for the visit, which has already been heavily weighted towards economic issues at the expense of a strategic outreach with an eye on Tuesday’s polls.

But it has not made much difference, and things don’t look good for Obama. A 12-foot-high stack of pumpkins on the White House lawns on Sunday generated jokes about why Democrats are running scared on Halloween, which Obama celebrated with his kids after taking a break from the pell-mell of last-minute campaigning.

Democrats are in danger of losing both the House of Representatives (where all 435 seats are at stake) and nearly a third of the 100-member Senate, besides a host of governorships and state legislatures in play.

Almost every opinion poll has projected a heavy defeat for the Democrats, with the certain loss of the House of Representatives and possibly even the Senate. Republicans are poised to erase the 39-seat difference in the 435-member House to take control of the chamber.

In the words of Harvard Historian Professor James T. Kloppenberg

Professor James T. Kloppenberg ‘s authored book has been published on just the past Sunday by Princeton University Press.

Professor chose to focus on the influences that shaped President Barack Obama’s view of the world, he interviewed the president’s former professors and classmates, combed through his books, essays and speeches, and even read every article published during the three years Obama was involved with the Harvard Law Review (“a superb cure for insomnia,” Kloppenberg said). What he did not do was speak to Obama. “He would have had to deny every word,” Kloppenberg said with a smile. The reason, he explained, is his conclusion that Obama is a true  intellectual — a word that is frequently considered an epithet among populists with a robust suspicion of Ivy League elites. In New York City last week to give a standing-room-only lecture about his forthcoming intellectual biography, Reading Obama: Dreams, Hopes, and the American Political Tradition, Kloppenberg explained that he sees Obama as a kind of philosopher president, a rare breed that can be found only a handful of times in US history.

“There’s John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and John Quincy Adams, then Abraham Lincoln and in the 20th century just Woodrow Wilson,” he said. To Kloppenberg the philosophy that has guided Obama most consistently is pragmatism, a uniquely American system of thought developed at the end of the 19th century by William James, John Dewey and Charles Sanders Peirce. It is a philosophy that grew up after Darwin published his theory of evolution and the Civil War reached its bloody end.

Pragmatism maintains that people are constantly devising and updating ideas to navigate the world in which they live; it embraces open-minded experimentation and continuing debate. “It is a philosophy for skeptics, not true believers,” Kloppenberg said. Those who heard Kloppenberg present his argument at a conference on intellectual history at the City University of New York’s Graduate Center responded with prolonged applause. “The way he traced Obama’s intellectual influences was fascinating for us, given that Obama’s academic background seems so similar to ours,” said Andrew Hartman, a historian at Illinois State University who helped organize the conference.

Kloppenberg  chose to focus on one slice of the president’s makeup: his ideas. In the professor’s analysis the president’s worldview is the product of the country’s long history of extending democracy to disenfranchised groups, as well as the specific ideological upheavals that struck campuses in the 1980s and 1990s. He mentions, for example, that Obama was at Harvard during “the greatest intellectual ferment in law schools in the 20th century,” when competing theories about race, feminism, realism and constitutional original intent were all battling for ground.

Obama was ultimately drawn to a cluster of ideas known as civic republicanism or deliberative democracy, Kloppenberg argues in the book . Taking his cue from Madison, Obama writes in his 2006 book The Audacity of Hope that the constitutional framework is “designed to force us into a conversation,” that it offers “a way by which we argue about our future.” This notion of a living document is directly at odds with the conception of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, who has spoken of “the good, old dead Constitution.”

Kloppenberg compiled a long list of people who he said helped shape Obama’s thinking and writing, including Weber and Nietzsche, Thoreau and Emerson, Langston Hughes and Ralph Ellison. Contemporary scholars like historian Gordon Wood, philosophers John Rawls and Hilary Putnam, anthropologist Clifford Geertz and legal theorists Martha Minow and Cass Sunstein (who is now working at the White House) also have a place.

Despite the detailed examination, Kloppenberg concedes that Obama remains something of a mystery. “To critics on the left he seems a tragic failure, a man with so much potential who has not fulfilled the promise of change that partisans predicted for his presidency,” he said. “To the right he is a frightening success, a man who has transformed the federal government and ruined the economy.”He finds both assessments flawed. Conservatives who argue that Obama is a socialist or an anti-colonialist (as Dinesh D’Souza does in his book “The Roots of Obama’s Rage”) are far off the mark, he said.

“Adams and Jefferson were the only anti-colonialists whom Obama has been affected by,” he told the audience in New York. “He has a profound love of America.” And his opposition to inequality stems from Puritan preachers and the social gospel rather than socialism. As for liberal critics, Kloppenberg took pains to differentiate the president’s philosophical pragmatism, which assumes that change emerges over decades, from the kind of “vulgar pragmatism” practiced by politicians looking only for expedient compromise. (He gave former President Bill Clinton’s strategy of “triangulation” as an example.)

 

Always Yours——— As Usual——–  Saurabh Singh