A FICTION: NOT FAR AWAY FROM RECENT FUTURE REALITY

In late evening, when I had just pressed the shut down button of my workstation, a colleague of mine entered the office chamber (Officially allotted to me to work).Hello, was the first word uttered out by her and before I could ask the purpose, she herself expressed that she planned to have my company while walking back to home, at least the part of distance that was common to we both. I welcomed the idea and also thanked her for the same. Thus the journey homewards started. While on walk the momentary silence was done away by my colleague, when she requested the permission to ask question that was coming to her mind. I agreed to help her to the limited capacity of mine.

Probably it was the prices of yellow metal that were troubling her and my colleague wanted to know, where the prices are expected to move in future and why. This I am inferring from the talks that continued.

She started the conversation by posing her curiosity as ahead: “Where do you see the price of gold going in the days to come?”

Since, at that moment, I was not exactly focusing on ‘investment advisory’, so I responded by saying that “on a broad level, the price are supposed to continue their northward journey.”

It seems that my response confused her a bit, as she soon came up with another question that “what I mean, when I say a broad level.”

I got the point and then explained to her that “the prices of any commodity do not move in a straight line. When I say on a broad level, it means that the prices will keep moving northwards, but in between they may drop as well, but they will pick up again, and thus will continue to scale up.”

It seems, that she was not ready to buy anything that I said, therefore, she questioned that what lay behind my confidence, which she visualized while I was answering her first curiosity.

Suddenly I realized that majority of investors; rarely scan the external and vital economic variables that are often of political nature. This made me aware that now I need to go bit detailed and also in a manner that she could easily comprehend.

“Well, I was just reading through some material and I realized that there is another solid reason for gold prices to go up,” I told her.

“Is it something other than all the money printing that is happening and is likely to happen in the days to come, all around the world?” she asked.

“Yes”, I answered.

“So what is this new reason?” she was now more curious.

Now I started by posing a question as ahead “Ever heard of Hugo Chavez?” Pat came the reply, “nope” with a supplementary question that now who’s he?

“He is the President of Venezuela, a country in South America.”                                

Probably she got a bit more confused and said that she knew that, but expressed her surprise on the issue that what “Venezuela” has got to do with the price of gold.

This made me aware that now my job was to explain history, international polity, and international trade, cost of transaction and accounting to her, and all this in very limited time of few minutes. I knew that I may be bombarded with whorls of questions.

 I started with letting her know that Venezuela has the 15th largest gold reserves in the world amounting to 401.1 tonnes. A lot of this gold is lying abroad in banks in New York, London and Zurich.

“But why will a country keep its gold overseas?” she interrupted.

 I started to introduce her with history. I said that “a part of the reason comes from history. Till August 15, 1971, the world was on a gold standard. Paper currencies were ultimately convertible into gold. This meant that countries had to settle their deficits in gold.” I followed this by giving an instance from international trade. I asked her to assume that England and Germany are exporting and importing goods from each other. At the end if France exports more to England than England to France, there is a deficit.” This means that England had to pay France. This payment was to be made in gold. A look at her face made me feel that she has now started picking up what I was attempting to explain. I carried on by adding that “now this meant that gold had to be physically moved from England to France, which of course was a pain. Movement meant cost of insurance as well as security.

“She was prompt in asking that “what was the way out?”

 I added for these reasons “a lot of this gold is simply stored overseas at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a part of the Federal Reserve of the United States, the Central Bank of the US).”

“How do you think this is going to help?”

It’s simple; I added and just narrated what Peter Bernstein writes in his book “The Power of Gold”. For example, if England lost gold to France, a guard at the Federal Reserve had merely to bring a dolly to England’s closet, trundle the gold to the French closet, and note the change in the bookkeeping records.’

She got the point, and allowed my request to take her back to Hugo Chavez.

The deliberations continued further, certainly with some statistical inferences. Estimates suggest that nearly 211 tonnes of the 400-odd tonnes of gold that Venezuela has are with banks abroad. Chavez has asked this gold to repatriated back to Venezuela.”

Now this brings a twist in the story, and the discussion to follow will also attempt to answer possible reason for Hugo Chavez’s such an act.

 “Chavez has had an anti-US stance for years and may feel that because of that Venezuela runs the risk of its gold being seized.”

“Gold Seized? Why would such happen and does the possibility of such an act exist?” was the latest in series of questions.

“It sure is. I explained the same by making her aware of the ongoing Libyan foreign exchange reserves crisis, which happens to be an outcome of its foreign reserves being seized by allied nations with declaration of war earlier this year.”

 “But what has all this got to do with the price of gold? To me it’s as simple as me wanting to have gold in my own locker rather than the bank locker.”

I agreed to her statement, while continuing to explain by adding that all is not that straightforward as concluded by her, though to some extent she was correct. The straight forward part of transaction would be limited to 99 tonnes of total 211 tonnes lying abroad, as this 99 tonnes are deposited with the Bank of England in London. Repatriating that back to Venezuela would be a straightforward process.”

Now comes the not so straight forward part, which happens to be of the tune of 112 tonnes of the gold and same is lying abroad with what are known as bullion banks. J P Morgan is one of them. Estimates suggest that Venezuelan gold worth $807 million (or around 450,000 ounces of gold) is lying with it.”

 She was instant, and argued that this should also be as straight forward as it is in the case of Bank of England, London, while simultaneously her facial expressions conveyed me that she wanted to know, if I dare to differ from her opinion. Certainly, I had to differ, and added that things are not always as simple as they seem to be. The statistics again came handy in quoting that “estimates suggest that the total amount of physical gold with J P Morgan currently stands at around 338,303 ounces (1 troy ounce equals 31.1 grams).”

Now, it seemed that she was out of reasons, as she expressed her ignorance about having to come across any news in media regarding, such a huge bank robbery in which approximately 1,11,697 ounce or 3473.8 kilo grams worth gold was looted.  I had to instantly chip in by saying that, this is not a case of bank lifting, but a way of functioning of financial system in general and banking sector in particular. Let me add an example to illustrate it? I sought her permission. The phenomenon goes as explained ahead [the attempt was to explain the process by making it as easy as possible, so that even a novice can understand].

“Central banks around the world had a huge amount of gold lying in their vaults, not earning any return. The end of 2007 witnessed the stock of gold with central banks around the world rising to 32,000 tonnes of gold.”

 I requested her to be more attentive to whatever I was going to add now. Out of the 32,000 tonnes gold held, the Central Bank lent approximately 14,000 tonnes to Bullion Banks like J P Morgan. James Turk and John Rubino in their coauthored book The Collapse of the Dollar, have argued that “lending, for instance, involves the central bank transferring gold to a major private bank, known as bullion bank, which pays the central bank a small-but-positive interest rate, then sells the gold in the open market.”

In this manner “central banks convert the gold into cash and then deploy this cash, somewhere to earn some positive rate of return. This based on a very fundamental assumption that idle assets provide no return, and there is fair possibility that such assets may ultimately add up some cost to the holder.” These costs may range from cost of storage to cost of security. As per meaning conveyed by the operative word “lending”, since the gold has been lent, therefore, the central banks have all the rights to, and can demand it back, whenever they want.

She chipped in by adding that probably “this is what Venezuela is doing right now”; and thus conveyed me a feeling that she was sincerely following the every single word uttered by me. 

 I nodded in agreement and continued further by adding that, since, the bullion banks have promised to return the borrowed gold to the central banks so they will have to return the same. In prevailing situations these bullion banks are not having the volume of gold that was lent to them by Central Bank. In financial and monetary world, this position is conveyed by the term ‘short’, and this means that these bullion banks are ‘short’ gold.

Now comes a significant turn in events, that may work as catalyst to force the prices of gold to break the roof. As the situation deliberated above suggests that, in case, sometime in future, these bullion banks are asked to deposit the volume of  gold lent to them by central bank, they will be left with no choice and would be obligated to buy gold in order to repay the central banks’.”

“So, as I can get, it goes like, that in such a scenario the bullion banks like J P Morgan will now have to buy back gold from the market in order to repay the Venezuelan government, given the situation that Venezuela has around 450,000 ounces of gold deposited with J P Morgan, whereas J P Morgan at present has only 338,303 ounces of gold in its accounts/ record books,” she added.

Exactly, I said in agreement, and carried the deliberations forward by adding, that this buying will lead to the price of gold rising further. I knew that now she has got answer to her question, but then too, I continued it by saying that this is only one part of the story.

Much like a child, who is curious to know about everything, she was now eager to learn that what the remaining part of story was now. She requested me to unfold the other part of the story.

I continued by giving her a reference of a report titled “Thing That Make You Go Hmmm” , and told that this report points out, ‘Chavez’s move could set in motion a chain of events whereby Central banks who store the bulk of their gold overseas in ‘safe’ locations scramble to repossess their country’s true ‘wealth’. If that happens, the most high-stakes game of musical chairs the world has ever seen will have begun’,” I said.

 “This sounds very scary”, she added.

“Yes, you are very much correct while mentioning that the report further states that ‘any delay in repatriating Venezuela’s gold could potentially start a frantic scramble by central banks to claim their physical. God save the scenario, but if it actually happens, rest assured that gold price will be on fire. A scenario will take place, which has neither been seen in past, nor even imagined.

It will give birth to an economic tsunami of magnitude, which will turn the great economic recession witnessed by world or even the jasmine revolution and contribution of social media to same to seem dwarf.

Don’t be surprised if I that there is enough in media to believe U S Govt. Manufactured Fake Gold

Perhaps, there are only few who can imagine the magnitude of risk, specifically if they are not linked to foreign trade. Let me illustrate it. It’s one thing to counterfeit a twenty or hundred dollar bill. The amount of financial damage is usually limited to a specific region and only affects dozens of people and thousands of dollars. Secret Service agents quickly notify the banks on how to recognize these phony bills and retail outlets usually have procedures in place (such as special pens to test the paper) to stop their proliferation.

This is the most sacred of all commodities because it is thought to be the most trusted reliable and valuable means of saving wealth.

A recent discovery — in October of 2009 — has been suppressed by the main stream media but has been circulating among the “big money” brokers and financial kingpins and is just now being revealed to the public. It involves the gold in Fort Knox — the US Treasury gold — that is the equity of our national wealth. In short, millions (with an “m”) of gold bars are fake!.Who did this? None, but the United States Government, as claimed by Chinese Authorities.

Background
In October of 2009 the Chinese received a shipment of gold bars. Gold is regularly exchanges between countries to pay debts and to settle the so-called balance of trade. Most gold is exchanged and stored in vaults under the supervision of a special organization based in London, the London Bullion Market Association (or LBMA). When the shipment was received, the Chinese government asked that special tests be performed to guarantee the purity and weight of the gold bars. In this test, four small holed are drilled into the gold bars and the metal is then analyzed.

Officials were shocked to learn that the bars were fake. They contained cores of tungsten with only a outer coating of real gold. What’s more, these gold bars, containing serial numbers for tracking, originated in the US and had been stored in Fort Knox for years. There were reportedly between, 5600 to 5700 bars, weighing 400 oz. each, in the shipment!

At first many gold experts assumed the fake gold originated in China, the world’s best knock-off producers. The Chinese were quick to investigate and issued a statement that implicated the US in the scheme.

What the Chinese Uncovered

Roughly 15 years ago — during the Clinton Administration [think Robert Rubin, Sir Alan Greenspan and Lawrence Summers] — between 1.3 and 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten blanks were allegedly manufactured by a very high-end, sophisticated refiner in the USA [more than 16 Thousand metric tonnes]. Subsequently, 640,000 of these tungsten blanks received their gold plating and WERE shipped to Ft. Knox and remain there to this day.

According to the Chinese investigation, the balance of this 1.3 million to 1.5 million 400 oz tungsten cache was also gold plated and then allegedly “sold” into the international market. Apparently, the global market is literally “stuffed full of 400 oz salted bars”. Perhaps, its worth is as much as, 600-billion U S dollars.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

 RELATED LINKS FOR READERS WHO WANT TO GO IN MORE DETAILS TO BEFORE COMMENTING ON STORY

1. http://etfdailynews.com/2011/08/17/venezuelan-president-hugo-chavez-sends-precious-metal-etfs-a-wakeup-call-gld-iau-slv-gdx-agq/
2. http://philosophers-stone.co.uk/wordpress/2011/08/hugo-chavez-gold-runs-bank-runs-and-bank-holidays/
3. http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/chavez-officially-nationalizes-venezuela-s-gold-industry-174207
4. http://notime4bull.com/aggregator/sources/13
5. http://mikepiro.com/blog/as-chavez-pulls-venezuelas-gold-from-jp-morgan-is-the-great-scramble-for-physical-starting/
6. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/traders-brace-for-venezuela-gold-transfer/article2134031/print/
7. http://www.bighaber.com/haber/chavez-to-nationalize-venezuelan-gold-industry-1072000.html
8. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/global_082611.php
9. http://americasfinancialmeltdown.blogspot.com/2010/11/below-is-antiwar_4391.html
10. http://mikepiro.com/blog/ron-paul-audit-federal-reserve-gold-stores/
11. http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/061976-2009-11-26-us-govt-manufactured-fake-gold.htm
12. http://www.the-boondocks.org/forum/index.php?t=msg&&goto=157202#msg_157202s

FEELING HEAT ON US DEBT : EARNINGS AND INDEX POISED TO EXHIBIT UNWANTED OSCILLATIONS

Wrangling over the US debt ceiling and questions marks over corporate earnings mean markets are unlikely to get a break any time soon.

Wall Street is set to close its worst three months in a year as July draws to a close next week after a roller coaster ride for markets. Whacked out fund managers hitting the beach in August may find themselves fiddling with their BlackBerrys more than the little umbrella in their cocktails.

“I need a vacation, man. After all the stuff that’s happened in the last three months I’m pretty much shot, I’m getting weird,” said one New Jersey-based fund manager, who was packing his bags for a destination in the Caribbean as temperatures topped 100 degrees Fahrenheit in New York City.

With euro zone leaders having reached a deal for yet another bailout for debt-laden Greece, investors will be free to chew over the rancor in Washington with even more attention.

Negotiations between President Barack Obama and the top Republican in the House of Representatives, John Boehner, still looked far from a deal to avert a looming US default, lawmakers said on Friday, raising the likelihood of more volatility next week if no solution is reached over the weekend.

“It’s likely an agreement in any form will cause a relief rally for equities,” said global head of sales trading at Dahlman Rose in New York.

“Coming on the heels of overall pretty good earnings numbers and some sort of resolution in Greece and that could make for a rally in the market,” he said.

But on the other side of the coin, the prolonged and partisan dispute over solving the country’s debt crisis means there is still a big downside risk.

“Who knows where that is going to go,” as per an analyst at MF Global in Chicago. “We’re vulnerable to a buyers’ strike if we don’t get any news.”

In addition, the corporate earnings season suggests other risks could dog the market. Despite generally good results so far, there have been some worrisome signs. The S&P 500 rallied 6% in the run-up to reporting season, but earnings misses from big industrial names like Rockwell Collins and Caterpillar Inc weighed on the Dow and S&P 500 on Friday.

Earlier in the week several big consumer names such as Whirlpool and Pepsi warned about sluggishness in developed markets, sending their shares sharply lower.

“The market still has a high degree of skepticism in it,” said the analyst, summing up the earnings season so far.

As per him, he will be closely following earnings from sector and economic bellwethers next week. Those include the package delivery company UPS, chipmaker Texas Instruments, and online retailer Amazon.

Around 30 percent of the S&P 500’s USD 12.3 trillion market caps have reported earnings so far. They have outpaced consensus estimates by 3.8%, and only 7% have missed estimates, according to data from Morgan Stanley.

But share prices of those that have fallen short of estimates have taken a severe beating. Given the fragile sentiment a few more prominent misses could derail the market.

“The market is punishing these misses more than it is rewarding beats, an asymmetry we have been calling for and we forecast will continue,” wrote Morgan Stanley’s US equity strategist in a note to clients.

“Our view remains that first half of the year numbers are achievable but the second half of the year looks challenged,” he said.

Next week is also a big week for economic data. Fears of a slowdown in the economy have been a large driver of market volatility over the last few months, and the coming releases will be parsed very closely.

They include early regional manufacturing data from Chicago and New York, a reading of consumer sentiment, and a first reading of US growth for the second quarter, expected to show the economy grew just 1.9% in the period.

Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Blackrock, one of the world’s largest fund managers with around USD 1.6 trillion of equities under management, said this week that the US economy is at a critical juncture.

Doll points out that since 1960 every time year-on-year growth has fallen under 2% the US economy has gone into recession.

“Our bottom line view is that investors should maintain a reasonably constructive bias toward risk assets, but should also be prepared to scale back exposure if evidence of economic growth acceleration does not materialize.”

Always Yours — As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

Note: Compiled from published News and Views

OIL POLITICS, SPECULATION, CHAIN REACTION AND MANAGEMENT

It requires quantum of intelligence, to infer from what is happening in the markets, or politico-socio-economic across the globe, to why it is happening. Things are never as simple as they seem to be. This would become comprehendible and evident as soon as one reads, relates and analyses the instances mentioned hereunder:

“Crude oil prices peaked to US $ 100 – 115 a barrel in April and May 2011 and moved downwards after that to touch a rate of US $ 90 – 92 per barrel in June 2011. In such a scenario, price increase by the Union Government should have been announced in April – May 2011, but the same did not occur. The Government found June 2011 to be the auspicious time for announcing price hike when the prices had nearly normalized. What could have been the motive for doing so? Simple answer is that April – May 2011 was the time when five states were going to elect the assembly members. The states being, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry. ”

“If one goes by what the campaign managers of Congress had to say on the Rahul Gandhi’s much publicized kisan padyatra-(which as claimed was undertaken to champion the cause of the farmers of the region) –  was conceived to detract the public attention from the issue of hike in petroleum products and their possible spiraling effect on inflation. This yatra detracted the lot of electronic media attention from the campaign that opposition forces such as BJP and Left were seeking to build up on the oil price hike related issues. ”

“Since the Oil shock of 1973, USA strategically took measures to control the oil market by keeping continued focus on West Asian Region. In 1980, Jimmy Carter, the then President of USA declared Persian Gulf an exclusive zone of American influence and created a rapid deployment of forces, which latter turned into what is known as US Central Command or CENTCOM.  ”

“As is being believed by majority that skirmish in Libya is behind recent spurt in prices, should correct their facts. Libya produces less than 3 per cent of global petroleum output. Where as Saudi Arabia has already made up for the current shortfall and its excess stocks are more than that of Libya and Algeria put together. In fact in present situation too oil production at many of Libyan facilities continues even in civil war there. ”

“The argument being forwarded by few is that rising demand from China and India has forced an upward trend in oil prices is also unjustified. Though these two countries do account for growing share of global demand, but then same is counterbalanced by slower demand from USA and Europe.”

“There is still a wide spread perception that cartel of Oil Exporting Countries can manipulate and influence the prices by changing the level of their supplies. Reality today is much different. The OPEC has turned from being a cartel to being a minor player today. Non OPEC countries now account for increasingly significant proportion of global supply. Russia has already snatched the title of being largest supplier of crude oil from Saudi Arabia since 2009.  ”

Many more such instances may be quoted. It’s not being quoted in anticipation that the variety of above instances is good enough to comprehend that nearly none of the factors assumed or arguments forwarded are capable of forcing any kind of hike in prices of the crude oil.

 

Then what is it, which is responsible for hike in crude oil price?

 

…….any guesses, if not, then storm your grey matter and keep visiting this place in hope of getting answer to this simple question.

 

Always Yours — As Usual —- Saurabh Singh

 

 

India Joined the Select Club of Countries making a Fighter Jet from Scratch with TEJAS

India on Monday joined the select club of countries making a fighter jet from scratch when Indian Air Force flew for the first time the lightweight indigenous multi-role Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas in a clear wintry sky here for initial operational clearance (IOC).

Defence Minister A. K. Antony handed over the service certificate of the world’s smallest military aircraft to Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal P V Naik in the presence of top defence and government officials.

The supersonic fourth generation fighter will form a 200-strong fleet for the IAF to replace the ageing Russian-made MiG-21 fleet and increase the squadron strength as a potent strike force by 2012.

“This is the first time an indigenously designed and developed military fighter aircraft has been certified for air force operations,” state-run Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) official K Jayaprakash Rao said.

The IOC involves specific process, including validation tests to determine the aircraft’s various operational functions including avionics, subsystems, thrust, aerodynamics, propulsion and radar.

The certificate was given by the Regional Centre for Military Airworthiness (RCMA) of the Centre for Military Airworthiness and Certification (Cemilac), a lab of the defence research organisation.

The fly-by-wire Tejas, which was beset by chronic delays and cost overruns, has been developed by the state-run Aeronautical Defense Agency (ADA) and manufactured by the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) in Bangalore in partnership with a host of public-private aerospace firms.

The successive delays caused by multiple factors, including sanctions by the US over a decade ago against India for conducting the second nuclear test in May 1998, led the project cost to rise to a whopping Rs 5,778 crore from the initial estimate of Rs 3,300 crore in the mid-1980s.

“This is a historic day for the burgeoning Indian aerospace industry and military aviation, as IOC signifies a major milestone in the design and development of the LCA,” Rao said on the margins of the event.

“Initially pilots fly four aircraft to check all its parametres, including flight controls, Mach speed and weaponisation for final operational clearance (FOC) and induction into the fleet as frontline fighter jets,” a senior air force official said.

“The majestic display of the lean-and-mean flying machine demonstrated the integration of all sensors and weapons, besides safety and reliability within the specified flight envelope,” Rao noted.

The ADA and HAL conducted 1,500 test flights involving 11 aircraft, including five prototypes in the past decade, after its maiden flight Jan 4, 2001 as a technology demonstrator.

Under the limited series production, HAL is manufacturing eight aircraft for clearance flights and will take up the air force’s initial order to deliver 20 jets to form the first Tejas squadron. It will be based at the Sulur air base near Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu.

The IAF has also placed an additional order in 2010 for 20 more Tejas for the second squadron to be raised at Kayathir near Tuticorin in the southern state where the air force is setting up a new base this decade.

SOME FACT ABOUT INDIA: THE SECOND FASTEST GROWING MARKET IN ASIA

DOING BUSINESS IN INDIA

The Indian market with its one billion plus population, presents lucrative and diverse opportunities for U.S. exporters with the right products, services, and commitment.  India’s requirements for equipments and services for major sectors such as energy, environmental, healthcare, high-tech, infrastructure, transportation, and defense will exceed tens of billions of dollars in the mid-term as the Indian economy further globalizes and expands.  India’s GDP, growing at 6.7% (for 2008-09), makes it one of the fastest growing economies in the world and the second fastest in Asia.  India has potential for a sustained growth of 8-10% for the next couple of years.  Now is the time for U.S. companies to enter the rising Indian market.

BRIEF PROFILE & KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Official Name: Republic of India

Location: Southern Asia, bordering the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, between Burma and Pakistan

Population: 1.16 billion (May 2009)

Languages: Hindi (national language primary tongue of 30% of population); English enjoys associate status but is the most important language for national, political, and commercial communications

Currency: Indian Rupee (Rs)

Capital City: New Delhi

Financial Center: Mumbai (formerly known as Bombay)

GDP: $1.16 trillion

Per Capita (PPP): $4,139 (2007-08)

NOT SO EMPHASIZED FACTS ABOUT INDIA…….

– is the world’s second largest small car market

– is one of only three countries that make its own supercomputers

– is the fourth largest economy in the world (measured in terms of purchasing power parity)

– is one of six countries that launch its own satellites

– 100 of the Fortune 500 have R & D facilities in India

– has the second largest group of software developers after the U.S.

– lists 6,600 companies on the Bombay Stock Exchange; only the NYSE has more

– is the world’s largest producer of milk, and second largest producer of food, including fruits and vegetables

– sends more students to the U.S. colleges than any other country in the world, as in 2008, over 94,563 Indian students enrolled in the USA

– Indian pharmaceutical industry is the world’s second largest after China

INDIAN HERITAGE – CONCEPTS & VALUES TO KNOW

In a diverse and complex country like India, it’s difficult to impart generic conclusions that could be used by those wanting to do business here. Regionalism, religion, language and caste are all factors that need to be taken into account when doing business in India. Behavior, etiquette and approach are all modified depending on whom you are addressing and the context in which they are being addressed.

Unlike western societies, in India religion, fatalism and collectivism are all components of daily life and they need to be respected for healthy and successful business relationships. Despite the traditional caste system being dismantled, remnants may still be witnessed in the Indian hierarchical structure of business practices and decision-making. There is a strong sense of tradition tied into daily business practices. Yet, signs of change are becoming more evident. Ever since the economic reforms began in 1991, India’s market is growing rapidly. With its geographical positioning in the Indian Ocean, a major international trade route, and with its rich mineral and agricultural resources, India’s economy is witnessing increased inflows of foreign investments. India is also recognized for its competitive education system and vast pool of highly skilled laborers, making it an attractive market for foreign businesses.

No matter what the industry is, foreign businesses should expect some degree of differences in business norms in India. Included below are some basic business etiquettes that the U.S. companies should follow when developing and maintaining relationship with Indian businesses.

BUSINESS ETIQUETTE

• Do use titles to address your Indian counterparts, such as “Professor” or “Doctor”. If he/she does not have a title, use “Mr”, “Mrs”, or “Miss”.
• Do wait for a female business colleague to initiate a greeting whether it is verbal or physical. Indian men do not generally shake hands with women out of respect.
• Do remain polite and honest at all times in order to prove that your objectives are sincere.
• Don’t be aggressive in your business negotiations – it can be interpreted as a sign of disrespect.
• Don’t take large or expensive gifts as this may cause embarrassment? If you do take a gift make sure you present the gift with both hands.
• Don’t refuse any food or drink offered to you during business meetings as this may cause offence (sample small portions at least). In addition, it is useful to keep in mind that traditionally, and religiously, majority of Indians are vegetarians and do not drink alcohol or smoke.

MARKET ENTRY

Key factors to doing business successfully in India include: finding good partners who have knowledge of the local market and procedural issues; good planning; aggressive due diligence and follow up; and patience and commitment.

India by itself offers customized solutions to help your business enter and succeed in the Indian market. Our India-wide network of trade specialists will work one-on-one with you through every step of the exporting process, helping you to:

• Target the best markets
• Promote your products and services to qualified buyers
• Meet the best distributors and agents for your products and services

Market Entry Strategy

• Finding partners and agents: New businesses must address issues of sales channels, distribution and marketing practices, pricing and labeling and protection of intellectual property. Relationships and personal meetings with the potential agents are extremely important. Due diligence is strongly recommended.
• Geographic diversity: U.S. companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, should consider approaching India’s market on a local level. Good localized information is a key to success in such a large and diverse country. U.S. Commercial Service posts in New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Ahmadabad, Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Calcutta provide indispensable local information and advice and are well plugged in with local business and economic leaders. Often multiple agents are required to serve each geographic market in the country.
• Market entry options: Options include using a subsidiary relationship, a joint venture with an Indian partner, or using a liaison, project, or branch office.

TO LOOK FOR

1.      Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry

2.      Central Board of Excise & Customs

3.      Indian Government Website Directory

4.      Credit Rating

5.      Information Service of India

6.      Business Standard

7.      Economic Times

8.      Financial Express

9.      Business World

SOME USEFUL LINKS

1. http://commerce.nic.in/
2. http://www.cbec.gov.in/
3. http://goidirectory.nic.in/
4. http://www.crisil.com/
5. http://www.business-standard.com/
6. http://www.economictimes.com/
7. http://www.financialexpress.com/
8. http://www.businessworld.in/

—–Always Yours — As Usual—Saurabh Singh

Source: American Description of Business Environment of India

AHEAD FROM PREVIOUS POST [Bank of Japan back in stimulus mode……]

…………………………………AHEAD FROM PREVIOUS POST

[ i.e., Bank of Japan in Stimulus Mode]

The case of Bank of Japan and that of the Federal Reserves at USA turns to be a clear example of  two events, i.e, First being What is Meaning of Zero Interest Rate Regime and Second it demonstrates a great wide valley of interest rate deferential being created among Developed Economies on one side and Emerging Nations Economies on other side. The same was very much visible in the recently concluded IMF Meet of Finance Ministers and Central Banker of these two clear groups.

The two self styled protagonists to name United States of America for Developed Economies and the other one being China for Emerging Economy Nations, could not reach any point of consensus to overcome currency war spread across the Globe. In the ensuing blame game, on one hand USA was requesting IMF-World Bank to make and keep a through visible on currency valuation and exchange rate in China; China spread its worry and held United States of America responsible for destablinsing the economies of the nations grouped as emerging economies. China claimed that it was not only the alone case of what USA managed in Brazil, but China and India too are not being spared.

Few of nations coming under Emerging Economies out of a list of Twenty Eight now are taking the measures to start putting a tax regime on certain kind of cash inflows as well as inflows above a certain volume too. If all the emerging nations are going to be forced to adopt such measures, then very fabric of Global Markets and Globalization as process will become extinct soon and defeat the objectives of the agreements already signed in this direction. But then, this is a situation as on date, which has a very small but sure probability of  shaping out, given the behavior and turn being witnessed in the fiscal as well as monetary policies of Developed Economies.

In an effort to conclude the write up so as it could be gone through easily the is being turned to Indian Markets. Indian Markets may get saved from the damage that huge amount of Cash Inflows are capable of causing. But till the task is not over, the torchbearers at Indian Economic Infrastructure, may not afford a sound sleep.

As per the expectations and sentiments in Indian Economy at present, launch of a large number of IPOs is being expected and awaited. These IPOs may provide a cushion by working as antidotes against huge cash inflows, that may result due to the reasons of a Huge Interest Rate differential.

Its not all over, and will or may continue for longer time with or without time interval, but at the moment I would love to say—————————————————

Always Yours ————— As Usual ———————-Saurabh Singh